467
FXAK67 PAJK 061342
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF COOLER ONSHORE MARINE AIR.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ACROSS THE SOUTH, STILL MILD FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, THEN TRENDING A
COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- A SERIES OF FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE STARTING
MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ MARINE LAYER CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED EVEN FARTHER INTO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS OVERNIGHT,
INVADING LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE AND HAS GONE AS FAR SOUTH AS
KAKE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH INTO KETCHIKAN AND
SOUTHERN CLARANCE STRAIT THIS MORNING. ANY FOG IN THE MARINE LAYER
HAS BEEN MUCH MORE PATCHY AND SITKA HAS SEEN SOME ON AND OFF
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WINDS HAVE BEEN 15 KT OR LESS.
INTO MONDAY, THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AS A
NEW FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MAINLY SEE THE
CLOUDS TODAY BUT THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL FILL IN SUNDAY
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE THE MARINE LAYER MOVE IN
FOR THE FIRST TIME. MEANWHILE THE NEW WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. YAKUTAT WILL
SEE THE EFFECTS FIRST WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING UP AS EARLY AS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UP TO HALF AN INCH FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEARLY 0.8 INCHES FOR YAKUTAT.
WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
EXPANDING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS, AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED DUE TO LIMITED DAY TIME HEATING (MAX OF AROUND 10 TO
MAYBE 15 KT). THE WINDS FROM THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER, BUT NOT
BY MUCH. THE GULF WATERS WILL SEE MOST OF THOSE FRONTAL WINDS WITH
MAX 20 KT BEING THE NORM FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY. THE AREA NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING WILL HAVE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM BARRIER JET
INFLUENCES PRODUCING 25 KT EAST WINDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON INNER
CHANNELS WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN SEEING WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
/ MONDAY TO FRIDAY / A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE SE AK
AREA WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
THEN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THE FLOW PATTERN WEATHER IS LOOKING
MORE ZONAL FROM THE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SO EXPECT THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS IN THE 3/4 INCH TO 1.5 INCH RANGE, AND
MODELS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE, FOR THE
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
PRIMARY THREAT SUNDAY MORNING IS A ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW DRIVING
A STOUT MARINE LAYER INTO OUR AREA, WITH THE LOWEST CIGS AND BCFG
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. AS WE MOVE
INTO THE MORE INTERIOR PANHANDLE, CIGS SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 1500
TO 3000FT WITH SOME -DZ OUT AND ABOUT. EXPECTING LOW CIGS AND
SOME BCFG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY MORNING;
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THINKING THE LIFR TO IFR BCFG AND CIGS ALONG THE COAST
TRENDS UPWARD TO MVFR NEAR 16 TO 18Z AS THE SUN COMES UP, WITH
MUCH OF THE INSIDE SEEING CIGS GO ABOVE 2500FT BY 21Z. SUNDAY
NIGHT IFR TO MVFR CIGS OF 800FT TO 2000FT RETURN, WITH LIGHT RAIN
FILLING IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE SUNDAY. PRIMARY FOCUS IS SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COAST; HOWEVER, THE STOUT MARINE LAYER MAY
INHIBIT STRONGER SEA BREEZES FROM FORMING, WITH SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. PER USUAL, THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
PAGY. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS IS FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...GULF WATERS
WINDS IN THE GULF ARE STILL MOSTLY OUT OF
THE W OR NW THIS MORNING BUT AREAS W OF 140W HAVE ALREADY SEEN A
WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THAT WIND SWITCH
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THESE SOUTHERLIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BY
MONDAY WITH AN AREA OF 25 KT EXPECTED NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. POST FRONT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK TO 15 KT
AND SWITCH TO A SW DIRECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 6 FT WITH A SMALL W SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 8 FT DUE TO INCREASED
WINDS FROM THE FRONT AND HIGHER (UP TO 6 FT) W SWELL THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE AGAIN
INTO MID WEEK AS A SECOND STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY.
INNER CHANNELS...INNER CHANNELS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH 10 KT OR
LESS OF WIND FOR MOST AREAS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT TODAY AS THE SPREADING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SUPPRESS
ANY SEA BREEZES (MAX OF 10 TO 15 KT) DUE TO REDUCED DAYTIME
HEATING. SEAS ARE LIKEWISE LOW WITH MOST AREA SEEING 2 TO 3 FT
SEAS OR LESS CURRENTLY. CHANGE IS COMING AS TWO FRONTS START TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL NOT
BRING MUCH MORE WIND MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT SOME 15 TO
20 KT WINDS TO N LYNN MONDAY NIGHT). HOWEVER, THE SECOND FRONT
WILL BRING A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS STARTING TUESDAY
AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MANY OF THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS CAN EXPECT S WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH N LYNN CANAL
POSSIBLY SEEING MIN GALE FORCE FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT DUE TO THESE
HIGHER EXPECTED WINDS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS, BUT NOT TO THE SAME
EXTENT AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED. THEY WILL LIKELY ONLY MAX OUT
AT 15 TO 20 KT TUESDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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