389
FXAK67 PAJK 070547
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
947 PM AKDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MONDAY,
WITH A RETURN OF COOLER ONSHORE MARINE AIR.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN
THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ACROSS THE SOUTH, HIGHS TRENDING
COOLER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S.
- A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
- STRONGER FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND ASSOCIATED MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE THE PRIMARY POINTS OF
INTEREST FOR THIS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A BIT OF CLEARING
IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL IN AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THE
MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNELS
TONIGHT WITH MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY FOR MONDAY MORNING. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST MONDAY, WITH TOTALS OF UP TO 1 INCH
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER 24 HOURS, AND LESSER
AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THIS FIRST FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BASICALLY STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE PARENT LOW DECAYS HEADING INTO
COOK INLET.
NO BREAK IS EXPECTED HOWEVER BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT WITH A MORE
POTENT SURGE OF MOISTURE FOLLOWS UP ON TUESDAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TO A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY, SPREADING FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE FAIRLY TRANSIENT NATURE OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN AND ANTECEDENT SOIL AND RIVER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, RAPID RISES
IN SOME AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS OF THIS FORECAST,
24 HOUR TOTALS FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STEEP TERRAIN AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES.
SOME INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST WEAKER
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OUT OF THE EAST FROM A COASTAL JET REACHING BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KT EAST OF KAYAK ISLAND BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS WITH THE
FOLLOW UP FRONT TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. FOR MORE ON THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS ON THE WATER,
SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
/ WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY / THE WEATHER FRONT
CONTINUES TO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN INTO THE
CANADIAN COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE
SHOWERS, BUT THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS AND BRINGS A COUPLE DAY BREAK IN THE WEATHER TO
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR A FAIR PORTION OF THE AREA WARMING TO
THE 60S AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE RIDGE FLATTENS HEADED TO SUNDAY, AND
MAY SEE SOME WEATHER START POSSIBLE SWEEP INTO THE ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING TO SET UP BUT HAS NOT YET REACHED THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE VERY MUCH LOCATION DEPENDENT
AS A FRONT IS STARTING TO WORK TOWARDS THE YAKUTAT AREA WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE THE MARINE LAYER STILL
LINGERING. WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TOWARDS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE FOR TOMORROW, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS NOT ALREADY SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE POTENTIALLY NOT SEEING EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT
TILL THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: GENERALLY SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS AS
INHERITED, WITH SOME TIGHTENING TIMEFRAME AND LOCATIONS OF
HIGHEST WIND SPEED. THE FIRST FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT, IS
CURRENTLY SHOULD ON SATELLITE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, TRANSITIONING
OUR NORTHWESTERLIES TO SOUTHEASTERLIES AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MINOR BARRIER JET FORMATION EAST OF CAPE
ST. ELIAS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS, BUT CERTAINLY A FAR CRY FROM NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE AND UP TO 8 FT
SEAS.
TUESDAY SEES THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE GULF, WITH
WIDESPREAD FRESH BREEZES TO NEAR GALES IN THE GULF WATERS UP TO 11
FT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
INSIDE WATERS: A MAJORITY OF CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IS
THE EXPANSION OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN SOUTHEAST FACING CHANNELS,
SUCH AS CHATHAM, LYNN, PORTIONS OF ICY STRAIT, STEPHENS, AND
PORTIONS OF FREDERICK SOUND. SET AT LEAST 25 KNOTS EXTENDING DOWN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CHATHAM STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE,
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS TO
CONTINUE TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD. CONTINUED THE GALE FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL, WITH SIGNS THAT IT COULD BE EXTENDED DOWN TO THE
ENTIRETY OF LYNN CANAL, THOUGH, KEPT THIS AT NEAR GALES FOR NOW.
WESTERN ICY STRAIT DO LOOK TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AT 25 KNOTS, INCREASING FROM 15 KNOTS
EARLIER IN THE MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NC
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