811
FXAK67 PAJK 071338
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 AM AKDT MON SEP 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
- A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEK.
- STRONGER FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
WIND FOR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ SHORT RANGE FORECAST
FEATURES TWO FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
EFFECTS BEING FELT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS IS, AS OF 4 AM, OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND MOVING EAST. IT IS ALREADY BRINGING RAIN TO THE
YAKUTAT AREA AND HAS SHIFTED WIND DIRECTIONS IN MUCH OF THE GULF
TO SOUTHERLY. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SPREADING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE
GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS IT COMES. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
SEE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WINDS ARE
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS INITIAL FRONT EITHER WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS OUT IN THE GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING PEAKING AROUND 25
KT TODAY. INNER CHANNELS WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT TO
START INCREASING, BUT EVEN THEN THEY WILL ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 10
TO 20 KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN LYNN CANAL.
A SECOND FRONT WILL BE COMING IN BEHIND THE FIRST ON TUESDAY. IT
IS THE STRONGER OF THE TWO SYSTEM FEATURING STRONGER WINDS AND
HEAVIER RAIN AS IT PULLS MOISTURE FROM FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AT YAKUTAT TUESDAY MORNING
AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL NOT BE POINTED AT ANY ONE PLACE FOR
VERY LONG THOUGH WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY SEEING AROUND 6 TO 9 HOURS
OF BEING UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SO WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES ON
THE ORDER OF AROUND 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER RAIN IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH IN ANY ONE AREA TO ACCUMULATE MORE THEN
1 TO 2.5 INCHES (POSSIBLY UP TO 3 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS)
FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE THE
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN WITH THIS FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD WINDS OF
25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY AND NORTHERN
INNER CHANNEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE KICKING UP TO 25 KT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LYNN CANAL LIKELY SEEING MIN GALE FORCE.
WIND ON LAND WILL BE ON THE RISE TOO WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 30
KT FOR MANY NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL LOCATIONS. SKAGWAY WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 KT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BOTH WINDS AND RAIN WILL
START DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
/ MONDAY TO FRIDAY / A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE SE AK
AREA WITH A FRONTAL BAND MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
THEN THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THE FLOW PATTERN WEATHER IS LOOKING
MORE ZONAL FROM THE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SO EXPECT THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW TO MAINTAIN THE RAIN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS IN THE 3/4 INCH TO 1.5 INCH RANGE, AND
MODELS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A WAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE, FOR THE
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
REGION, WITH THE FIRST WEAKER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY. ANTICIPATE MVFR -RA ALONG THE COAST TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON TO IFR, WITH MVFR -RA BECOMING
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INSIDE. CIGS OF 800FT TO 2000FT ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH -RA DIMINISHING VSBY 3SM TO 5SM.
TUESDAY MORNING A MUCH STRONGER BAND OF RAIN ARRIVES ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, SPREADING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING STRONG
SURFACE WINDS, PRIMARILY FOCUSED IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
MARINE
GULF WATERS: A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN GULF HAS SEEN WIND
DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A
NEW FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS OF 4 AM ONLY AREAS E OF 135W ARE
STILL WESTERLY AND THOSE AREAS SHOULD FLIP TO THE SOUTH AS WELL
BY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY (WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT NEAR
CAPE SUCKLING). THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS SPEEDS MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE W ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD S WINDS TO 25 TO 30
KT WHICH WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SWITCHING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. SEAS ARE RATHER LOW (6 FT OR LESS) ACROSS MOST
OF THE EASTERN GULF, BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO BUILD IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT A STEADY BUILDING TREND UP TO 9 TO 12 FT BY
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM A COMBINATION OF HIGHER WINDS BUILDING WIND
WAVE, AND AN INCREASED W SWELL UP TO 5 TO 6 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INNER CHANNELS: THE INNER CHANNELS ARE MOSTLY QUIET CURRENTLY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THIS WILL NOT LAST AS TWO FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS, BUT NOT BY MUCH AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT
THE NORTHERN CHANNELS. S WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS IN LYNN CANAL. THERE WILL NOT BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND WINDS
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH) WILL JUST GET STRONGER. THE INNER
CHANNELS FROM FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARD WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE IN
LYNN CANAL WHERE MIN GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
START DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-652-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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