762
FXAK67 PAJK 080538
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
938 PM AKDT MON SEP 7 2026
UPDATE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLIER IN THE DAY. UPDATE TO THE
AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN INCOMING SYSTEM TONIGHT BRINGS MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE GULF
COAST AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. LESS LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE. SKAGWAY COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
- FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH MORE
SUN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF CONTINUES TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION THE
MAJORITY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS SITUATED AROUND AND WEST OF
YAKUTAT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH INLAND TONIGHT THIS
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AND OUTER COAST, WITH CLOUDS ALSO FILLING IN MORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. AFTER THIS
INITIAL WEAKER FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE,
THE MAIN EVENT IN TERMS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS IS STILL
ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THERE IS STILL
LITTLE TO NO BREAK EXPECTED IN RAINFALL, THOUGH INTENSITY SHOULD
WANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN COMING TOMORROW IS ALREADY VISIBLE VIA SATELLITE
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND ALONG WITH THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
JUMP ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LINGERING
FOR ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. IN TERMS OF TIMING, THE
HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IN TERMS OF RAIN
TOTALS, STILL LOOKING AT 1 TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN STEEP TERRAIN OR IF THE SYSTEM LOSES MOMENTUM WHILE DIVING
SOUTHEAST. ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE WAKE OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN, COLDER AIR WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND GIVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST DOWN TO CAPE SPENCER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ALONG LYNN CANAL WITH THE FIRST WEAK
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON REACHING UPWARDS
OF 20 KT AS OF THIS DISCUSSION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BEFORE PICKING UP AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING GALE FORCE FOR LYNN CANAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TAIYA INLET SEEING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SKAGWAY FROM EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE CAN ALSO EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH THE STRONGEST ARE EXPECTED ALONG LYNN
CANAL AND NORTHWARDS TOWARDS TAIYA INLET. ONCE THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION, WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO BE NORTHERLY DUE TO
A TROUGH POTENTIALLY SIDESWIPING THE PANHANDLE FROM CANADA. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIALITY, KEEP AN EYE ON THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE MARINE CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAKE SURE TO CHECK OUT THE MARINE
SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY /
LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF BEFORE DIVING TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS
HAIDA GWAII, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. WITH THE RIDGE ON THE
HEELS OF THE LOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIENTATION OF
THIS GRADIENT LOOKS TO FAVOR NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WATER WAYS AT
THIS TIME SO WE COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME, WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN THANKS
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
ALSO LEANING INTO 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO 0C AS THIS
AIR MOVES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS BUT AGREEMENT ON THIS IS STILL
ON THE LOWER END. WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S AND POTENTIALLY
SOME 70S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
HEADING TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK, GEFS AND SOME MEMBERS OF THE
EPS WANT TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUT AGREEMENT ON
THIS IDEA IS STILL LOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN
TO SET UP FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
A WEAKENING FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT. BY 15Z-18Z, A STRONGER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AND BRING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN, LOWER CEILINGS, AND FREQUENT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AT PAGY AND
ADJACENT LOCALES, WHERE GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME DUE TO
PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEEDS FROM
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO 2000FT AGL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS:
THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF FRONTS HAS TURNED WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE
PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT BEFORE A LULL LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE
SECOND, STRONGER FRONT MAKES IT PASS ON TUESDAY. WINDS TUESDAY WILL
REACH 25-30 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS CONTINUED STRONG FLOW WILL
BUILD HIGHER SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. IN THAT AREA WAVE HEIGHTS OF
9-12 FT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHER 9-12 FT SEAS TO SPREAD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AS WELL. THESE WESTERLIES WILL ALSO BE
MODERATELY WEAKER THAN THE SOUTHERLIES OF TUESDAY, SITTING IN THE 10-
20 KT RANGE.
INSIDE WATERS:
MUCH LIKE THE OUTER WATERS, THE INSIDE CHANNELS WILL EXPERIENCE A
TALE OF TWO FRONTS. TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPERIENCING A SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL HAVE
BEEN RECORDED UP TO 25 KT, WITH SOME 15-20 KT GUSTS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES, SUCH AS IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
GENERALLY 2-3 FT IN THE NORTHERN CHANNELS, REACHING 5 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES AND IN LYNN CANAL. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SEE A MUCH STRONGER
WIND AND SEA RESPONSE WITH A STRONGER FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN LYNN, AND MOST OTHER PORTIONS OF THE INSIDE
CHANNELS WILL SEE 20-25 KT WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO REACH 3-5 FT
THROUGHOUT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...VFJ
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