538
FXAK67 PAJK 081757
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
957 AM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST
OF ANCHORAGE IS PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST, EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO BE LOWEST AS THE
RAIN STARTS, AND MODERATE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED MVFR VISIBILITY. WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
YAKUTAT, THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS, WITH WINDS
AROUND 40 KTS 2000 FEET AGL.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DECREASE AND WIND DIRECTIONS TO FLIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM FOR YAKUTAT AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 KTS AROUND 2000 FEET AGL, THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS OCCURRING
AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY IS FOR SITKA, KETCHIKAN, AND KLAWOCK.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 441 AM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE. SKAGWAY WILL LIKELY SEE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
- FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH MORE
SUN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM...PRIMARY FOCUS TUESDAY MORNING IS STOUT SOUTHERLY
WINDS FILLING IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, ACCOMPANIED BY RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL. EXPECT WIND/RAIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT A GREAT DAY TO BE
OUT AND ABOUT IN A SMALL VESSEL, SEE MARINE SECTION FOR INNER
CHANNEL WIND HAZARDS. FOR FOLKS NESTLED SAFELY ONSHORE, THIS WILL
BE OUR FIRST REAL SOUTHERLY BLOW OF THE FALL SEASON. OVERNIGHT THE
FOCUS HAS BEEN ON WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND,
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY FOR JUNEAU, SKAGWAY, AND HAINES,
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 40+ KNOT WINDS FOR SKAGWAY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY STARTING NEAR 3PM TUESDAY AND
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDED THESE AREAS; HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FOR 40+ KNOT WINDS IN SKAGWAY.
MOVING ON TO RAIN, THE PUBLISHED FORECAST MAINTAINS ABOUT 1 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STEEP TERRAIN. NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL SEE SOME RISE IN
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. WEDNESDAY, COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG OUR COAST FROM CAPE
FAIRWEATHER SOUTH INTO BARANOF.
LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY /...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF BEFORE DIVING TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS
HAIDA GWAII, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. WITH THE RIDGE ON THE
HEELS OF THE LOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIENTATION OF
THIS GRADIENT LOOKS TO FAVOR NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WATER WAYS AT
THIS TIME SO WE COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME, WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN THANKS
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
ALSO LEANING INTO 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO 0C AS THIS
AIR MOVES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS BUT AGREEMENT ON THIS IS STILL
ON THE LOWER END. WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S AND POTENTIALLY
SOME 70S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
HEADING TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK, GEFS AND SOME MEMBERS OF THE
EPS WANT TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUT AGREEMENT ON
THIS IDEA IS STILL LOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN
TO SET UP FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/ LOTS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER AROUND THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING,
AND IT IS JUST EXPECTED TO GET WORSE AS THE DAY GOES ON. A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONG
FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF IT IS ALREADY IMPACTING YAKUTAT WHERE
CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000 FT AS OF 4 AM. THAT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AROUND NOON, THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER WITH VIS
DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 MILES AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES IN.
CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM W TO E STARTING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVE EAST.
WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER FACTOR WITH THIS FRONT. SURFACE WINDS ARE
ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 KT AROUND N LYNN AND SKAGWAY THIS MORNING
AND THEY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURFACE WINDS COULD BE GUSTING TO 45 KT
AROUND N LYNN AND SKAGWAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT FOR VARIOUS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTH AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH THEN START TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL NOT SEE AS STRONG OF WINDS, BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POST FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT SWITCH TO SW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO
35 KT WHILE SURFACE WINDS STAY SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AND MORE S OR SE.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE:
AS OF 0200 TUESDAY FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTS
NEAR THE KENAI, WHICH WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MANY AREAS FROM CROSS
SOUND TO CAPE ST. ELIAS SEEING STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES (20 TO
30 KNOTS). FOR FOLKS SOUTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE, EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES; HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BUILD LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY.
TOUCHING ON SEA STATE, SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 5 TO 7 FT NEAR 12
TO 15 SECONDS FROM A GALE FORCE LOW A FEW DAYS AGO SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING OUR COAST. THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT, WITH THE
DOMINANT PERIOD DIMINISHING TO 9 TO 12 SECONDS. ALONG THE COAST,
EXPECT ESE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE TO DRIVE A SOUTHERLY WAVE
COMPONENT AS WELL. AS WESTERLY WINDS BUILD WEDNESDAY EXPECT WNW
SEAS NEAR 8 TO 10 FT, DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY
LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL FROM HURRICANE LOWELL TO SPREAD ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
INSIDE:
SIMPLY PUT, MARINERS NAVIGATING OUR WATERS SHOULD MAKE READY FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS FILLING IN
ACROSS ICY STRAIT INTO SOUTHERN LYNN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FIRST REAL SOUTHERLY BLOW OF THE FALL SEASON IS UPON US. THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNELS ALONG AND NORTH OF
FREDERICK WILL EXPERIENCE, AT MINIMUM, SUSTAINED WINDS OF STRONG
BREEZES, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY IN LYNN CANAL. THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING HAS BEEN DIAGNOSING THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND FOR ICY STRAIT, GLACIER BAY, AND NORTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TO REFLECT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR EASTERN ICY AND NORTHERN STEPHENS BY 12 TO 3PM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THESE WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MARINERS NAVIGATING GLACIER BAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
LIKELY REACHING NEAR-GALE FORCE, PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER ARMS.
AS WE MOVE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS ICY STRAIT, WITH SPEEDS LIKELY NEAR FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST AS
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LYNN, WHICH HISTORICALLY BRINGS SOME SMALL
WAVE ACTION INTO AUKE BAY. NOT FORGETTING ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TO IMPACT
CLARENCE STRAIT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS COME DOWN WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON LEAVING SOME TIME FOR
FOLKS TO REPOSITION BEFORE ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...EAL/MUSALL
MARINE...AP
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