565
FXAK67 PAJK 082348
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
- A STRONG FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE. SKAGWAY WILL LIKELY SEE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
- FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH MORE
SUN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONT IS SWIPING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE US
WITH A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRETY OF SE AK. RAIN RATES OF
AROUND 0.25"/HR HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLE, WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
RAIN PROCESSES. THIS REGION OF HEAVIER RATES WILL PROGRESS SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
MOVING AHEAD TO THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD, THERE IS
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY JUST OFF THE COAST THAT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER RAINSTORM. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE BETWEEN
1.5-3". AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RAIN
RATES AND CONVECTION (WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER RAIN RATES).
COUNTER TO THAT, THIS IS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, SO THE MAXIMA
OF RAIN RATES SHOULDN'T SIT IN ONE LOCATION FOR EXTENDED AMOUNTS OF
TIME, MITIGATING FLOOD CONCERNS.
AFTER WE GET THROUGH THIS FRONT BY END OF WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK, GIVING US AN ALMOST SUMMERY, DRY
END TO THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH THE RIDGE ON THE
HEELS OF THE LOW, THERE LOOKS TO BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ORIENTATION OF
THIS GRADIENT LOOKS TO FAVOR NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WATER WAYS AT
THIS TIME SO WE COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME, WE SHOULD DRY OUT AGAIN THANKS
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA. SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
ALSO LEANING INTO 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO 0C AS THIS
AIR MOVES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS BUT AGREEMENT ON THIS IS STILL
ON THE LOWER END. WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S AND POTENTIALLY
SOME 70S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
HEADING TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK, GEFS AND SOME MEMBERS OF THE
EPS WANT TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUT AGREEMENT ON
THIS IDEA IS STILL LOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN
TO SET UP FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS
PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST, EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES,
DETERIORATING TO IFR. GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN
SKAGWAY, AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO DECREASE AND WIND DIRECTIONS TO FLIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT
CEILINGS WILL RAISE ABOVE 3000 FEET. WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 KTS
AROUND 2000 FEET AGL, THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LLWS OCCURRING AFTER 05Z
WEDNESDAY IS FOR WRANGELL, KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE GULF AND OUTER
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THEY
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW SLIDES DOWN
THE COAST AND TOWARDS WASHINGTON.
WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FT, WITH THE DOMINANT PERIOD DIMINISHING TO
9 TO 12 SECONDS. AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY,
EXPECT WNW SEAS NEAR 8 TO 11 FT, DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL FROM
HURRICANE LOWELL TO SPREAD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
INSIDE:
SIMPLY PUT, MARINERS NAVIGATING OUR WATERS SHOULD MAKE READY FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS FILLING IN
ACROSS ICY STRAIT INTO SOUTHERN LYNN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT CROSSING THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING STRONG BREEZES AND
ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ALONG AND NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY IN
LYNN CANAL. HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND FREDERICK SOUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT, WHERE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS OF THE ZONE.
AS WE MOVE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS ICY STRAIT, WITH SPEEDS LIKELY NEAR FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST AS
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LYNN, WHICH HISTORICALLY BRINGS SOME SMALL
WAVE ACTION INTO AUKE BAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A REPRIEVE
FROM THE ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>034-036-053-
641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...DS
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