254
FXAK67 PAJK 090625 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1025 PM AKDT TUE SEP 8 2026
UPDATE
MINOR EDITS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
JUNEAU AREA EXPIRED ON TIME AT 9PM WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FURTHER OVERNIGHT. AN UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION IS INCLUDED
BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE. SKAGWAY WILL LIKELY SEE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
- FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH MORE
SUN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
A STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONT IS
SWIPING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRETY OF SE AK.
RAIN RATES OF AROUND 0.25"/HR HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN PROCESSES. THIS REGION OF HEAVIER RATES
WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT
THIS EVENING.
MOVING AHEAD TO THE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD, THERE IS
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY JUST OFF THE COAST THAT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH
ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER RAINSTORM. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS ARE BETWEEN
1.5-3". AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RAIN
RATES AND CONVECTION (WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER RAIN RATES).
COUNTER TO THAT, THIS IS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, SO THE MAXIMA
OF RAIN RATES SHOULDN'T SIT IN ONE LOCATION FOR EXTENDED AMOUNTS OF
TIME, MITIGATING FLOOD CONCERNS.
AFTER WE GET THROUGH THIS FRONT BY END OF WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS, AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK, GIVING US AN ALMOST SUMMERY, DRY
END TO THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO BE SEEN
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
OVER THE GULF COME FRIDAY. THIS WILL FINALLY DISLODGE THE WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND USHER IN MORE CONSISTENT DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT EARLY FRIDAY FAVORING
NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT SOME STOUT
NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AND
COASTAL WATERS LARGELY FALLING TO 10 KT OR LESS. WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS, LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL.
THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WHETHER A LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF TO TAKE A SWIPE AT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL NOT SOLD ON THE IDEA, THOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT TREND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL THOUGH THE MAIN
TAKEAWAY IS STILL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME HIGHS TO
REBOUND TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST, IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT PAGY, PAHN, AND PAJN OVERNIGHT, WHILE
INCREASING FARTHER SOUTH. OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AFTER 15Z-18Z, BUT
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO IFR IN SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH ABOUT
21Z-23Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PASI
SOUTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE GULF AND OUTER
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THEY
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW SLIDES DOWN
THE COAST AND TOWARDS WASHINGTON.
WAVE HEIGHTS 10 TO 12 FT, WITH THE DOMINANT PERIOD DIMINISHING TO
9 TO 12 SECONDS. AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY,
EXPECT WNW SEAS NEAR 8 TO 11 FT, DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL FROM
HURRICANE LOWELL TO SPREAD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
INSIDE:
SIMPLY PUT, MARINERS NAVIGATING OUR WATERS SHOULD MAKE READY FOR
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS FILLING IN
ACROSS ICY STRAIT INTO SOUTHERN LYNN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT CROSSING THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING STRONG BREEZES AND
ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ALONG AND NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY IN
LYNN CANAL. HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND FREDERICK SOUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CLARENCE
STRAIT, WHERE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS OF THE ZONE.
AS WE MOVE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS ICY STRAIT, WITH SPEEDS LIKELY NEAR FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWEST AS
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LYNN, WHICH HISTORICALLY BRINGS SOME SMALL
WAVE ACTION INTO AUKE BAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A REPRIEVE
FROM THE ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ319.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>034-036-053-
641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...DS
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