707
FXAK67 PAJK 091807
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1007 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS
BROUGHT ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IS NOW MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO CANADA, EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE IS AN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO HAINES, AND
THIS MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, AND
SITKA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE
FOR ALL OF SE AK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL. THERE IS THE
HIGHEST FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IN YAKUTAT. MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK AFTER
06Z THURSDAY. WHERE FOG DEVELOPS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHEN
WINDS CALM DOWN, AND SKIES CLEAR. THE RIDGE DEVELOPING WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING WIND SPEEDS FOR SKAGWAY AND HAINES, WITH NORTHERLY
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 545 AM AKDT WED SEP 9 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
THURSDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS, MORE SUNSHINE, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A STRONG FALL SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS OF 0500 SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTED 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS FROM
YAKUTAT INTO THE ICY STRAIT, WITH MUCH LESS NEAR HAINES AND
SKAGWAY. WHILE THESE 24 HOURS AMOUNTS ARE MODEST, 3 TO 6 HOURS
RATES OFFERED SURPRISES, WITH PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE REPORTING
0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, WITH
THE PRIMARY FOCUS ON COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, DRIVING INSTABILITY AND RAIN SHOWERS. INDICES
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT BURSTS OF RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHICH COULD ADD TO LOCAL CREEKS/SMALL STREAM RISES.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EVENING.
EXPECT THESE LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THURSDAY A SURFACE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE INTO THE YUKON, DRIVING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO BE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE GULF COME FRIDAY. THIS WILL
FINALLY DISLODGE THE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND USHER
IN MORE CONSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND OVERALL BENIGN
WEATHER. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT EARLY FRIDAY FAVORING NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT SOME STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL WATERS LARGELY FALLING
TO 10 KT OR LESS. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS, LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL.
THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WHETHER A LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF TO TAKE A SWIPE AT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL NOT SOLD ON THE IDEA, THOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT TREND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERALL THOUGH THE MAIN
TAKEAWAY IS STILL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME HIGHS TO
REBOUND TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS
AN EARLY SEASON FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED FROM KLAWOCK TO WRANGELL
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. NORTH OF THIS FRONT, EXPECTING VFR TO
MVFR WITH CIGS AOB 5000FT TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING, HOWEVER
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHORT DURATION LOWERED VSBYS FROM POST-
FRONTAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS, BUT ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
LAST 30 MINUTES OR LESS WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT TOWARDS KETCHIKAN, PREDOMINATE MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ONGOING WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT AND PERSISTENT VISBYS 3 TO 5 SM
WITHIN STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECTING THE S
PANHANDLE TO HOLD ONTO THE WORST OF THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS INTO THE
LATE MORNING ALA THE AFOREMENTIONED PASSING FRONT, HOWEVER BY 00Z
THIS AFTERNOON OVERALL WIDESPREAD FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
GENERAL VFR WITH CIGS AOA 3500FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN THE
PANHANDLE. AS WE MOVE INTO LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING EACH DAY WITH
THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THE NIGHTLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER OR
PATCHY FOG AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF.
MARGINAL LLWS THREAT ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS REMAIN SUSTAINED 10 TO
15KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY, ISOLATED GUST UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT SKAGWAY.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS:
EARLY WEDNESDAY, A FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH. POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP IN THE
NORTH AND WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. FOR FOLKS TRYING TO MOVE AROUND THE INSIDE, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BRINING A SHORT WINDOW TO
REPOSITION. THURSDAY STRONG NORTHERLIES BUILD ACROSS MAJOR NORTH-
SOUTH PASSAGES ALONG AND NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL, WITH
GLACIER BAY, ICY STRAIT, STEPHENS AND CHATHAM SEEING FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES. NORTHERLIES DIE DOWN FRIDAY WITH SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE WATERS:
TAKING A PEEK AT ASCAT WINDS, BUOYS, AND ALTIMETER WAVE HEIGHTS,
OUR COAST IS CURRENTLY STARTING TO FEEL WESTERLY WINDS OF MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH NEAR-GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. ONE
NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS COMING OUT
OF COOK INLET, WHICH COULD COME INTO PLAY LATER. WINDS CONTINUE
TO VEER TO THE WNW AND DIMINISH IN STRENGTH, BECOMING 10 TO 15
KNOTS ALONG MOST OF OUR COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR COASTAL SEA STATE, PROMINENT SOUTHWEST SWELL OF 4 TO 7 FT AT
12 SECONDS GENERATED FROM A STORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS A FEW
DAYS AGO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH SOUTHWEST FRESH SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT
NEAR 9 SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR 8 TO 10 SECONDS,
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 8, BECOMING WESTERLY. WAVE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY, DROPPING BELOW 8 FT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM/MUSALL
MARINE...AP
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