242
FXAK67 PAJK 100641
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1041 PM AKDT WED SEP 9 2026
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. AN UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION IS INCLUDED
BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER POTENTIAL SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIMINISHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND. NORTHERLY WINDS
BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS, MORE SUNSHINE, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
NOT MUCH TO ALTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE HAS HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, AND IT HAS PLAYED OUT MUCH ALONG THOSE LINES. SATELLITE
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED FRONT TRANSITING THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, WITH CLEARING BEHIND IT. THAT CLEARING WILL SET UP THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WELL FOR RADIATIVE COOLING TONIGHT, AND LIKELY
FOG IN THE MORNING FOR THE INNER CHANNELS THERE. AS FOR THE NORTH
AND SOUTH, SEEMS THE MARINE LAYER WILL HANG A BIT TOO LONG IN THE
SOUTH TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT COOLING FOR FOG FORMATION, AND UP TOP
WINDS WILL HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP, PREVENTING EFFICIENT COOLING AND
STABILIZATION.
AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH, RAIN WILL COME TO AN END. WITH HOW
OVERCAST THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS, A THUNDERSTORM OFFSHORE IS LESS
LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING, SO TO SPEAK, AS THERE
IS EVIDENCE FOR A REGION OF INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX OF
THE SYSTEM, AS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED OFF THE COAST
OF KRUZOF ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WILL BE MAINTAINED OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
A RETURN TO SUMMERY CONDITIONS WILL BE UNDERWAY AFTER THIS FRONT IS
FINISHED REMINDING US WHAT RAIN LOOKS LIKE. CLEARER SKIES AND
SUNNIER, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A RIDGE BECOMES SITUATED
OVER THE GULF.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BRINGING
CONSISTENTLY DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER. BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING,
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM IS WHETHER A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BYPASS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BLOCK MOST APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL BUT INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE/OUTER COAST REGION BY MIDWEEK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OVER THE MAINLAND INTERIOR,
THOUGH COULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH BY MONDAY. OVERALL, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, CONTINUING TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
AS A TROUGH EXITS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE REGION, RAIN SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY ENDING. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN LEFT IN ITS WAKE. AND, AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, WE EXPECT SOME MIST AND
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH PERHAPS THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO AFFECT PAPG AND PAWG. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR LYNN CANAL, WHERE NORTHERLY GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS, WITH VFR BECOMING PREDOMINANT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: GENERALLY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD,
AS THE FRONT EXISTS INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WAVE HEIGHTS,
DRIVEN BY PROLONGED STRONG WINDS AND A MODEST WESTERLY SWELL LOOK
TO DIMINISH FROM 8-12 FT AT 9 SECONDS TO 4-5 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AT
AROUND 15 SECONDS WITH VERY LITTLE SWELL INFLUENCE. EXPECTING TO
SEE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS OUT OF CHATHAM STRAIT AND
INTO DIXON ENTRANCE FROM UNSEASONABLY STRONG NORTHERLIES, BEFORE
FALLING OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
INSIDE WATERS: MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY, AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM A COLD FRONT IN CANADA, IN COMBINATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE YUKON, LOOK TO INCREASE
NORTHERLIES IN NORTH SOUTH FACING CHANNELS LIKE LYNN CANAL,
CHATHAM STRAIT, AND STEPHENS PASSAGE. EXPANDED OUT THE AREAS OF
STRONG BREEZES TO EXIT CHATHAM STRAIT INTO THE GULF, BUT NOTABLY
DID NOT INCREASE LYNN CANAL UP TO GALE FORCE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
FOR THIS AREA LOOK TO APPROACH AROUND A 7 MB DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
WHITEHORSE AND JUNEAU, WHICH HAS HISTORICALLY ONLY CAUSED GALE
FORCE WINDS 20% OF THE TIME. THEREFORE, KEPT GALES OUT OF THE
FORECAST, AS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE LYNN CANAL
MAXIMIZING AROUND 30 KNOTS
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-032-033-641>644-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...NC
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