577
FXAK67 PAJK 101403
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
603 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY,
STRONGEST MARINE WINDS EXPECTED IN LYNN CANAL.
- HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS, MORE SUNSHINE, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS ARE GOING SLACK AND TURNING NORTH
AS A LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD, WITH
SKIES MORE OR LESS CLEAR, ALLOWING AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
ANTICIPATING THIS FOG TO QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING. UPSTREAM,
A SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING EAST INTO THE YUKON, WHICH WILL SERVE AS
THE MECHANISM FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. TOUCHING ON THIS, THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS IN ELEVATED
NORTHERLY WINDS, BRINGING CONCERNS FOR MARITIME AND AVIATION
OPERATIONS. FOR FOLKS ON LAND, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST, AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, BRINGING CONSISTENTLY DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER. BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AND COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM IS WHETHER A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BYPASS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BLOCK MOST APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SMALL BUT INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE/OUTER COAST REGION BY MIDWEEK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OVER THE MAINLAND INTERIOR,
THOUGH COULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH BY MONDAY. OVERALL, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, CONTINUING TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
QUITE A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UNFOLDING OVERNIGHT,
WITH A BROAD STROKE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO LIFR,
CEILINGS RANGING 100FT TO SKC AND VISBYS AS LOW AS AN 1/8 MILE AT
TIMES. WHAT STARTED OFF THE NIGHT AS PREDOMINATE LIFR/IFR VSBY
ISSUES FROM FOG FORMATION HAS NOW TRANSFORMED INTO A LIFR/IFR CIG
ISSUE AS UPPER LVL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO BUILD WITHIN THE N INNER CHANNELS.
THIS COMBO OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG
LIFTING INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK AOB 1500FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR INNER CHANNEL TERMINALS. MOVING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
ANY LINGERING LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
DAY TIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY WITH HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
AOA 3500FT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNEL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO
20KTS, WITH STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AT SKAGWAY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOUNTAIN WAVE AND LLWS DEVELOPMENT NEAR
END OF TAF PERIOD FOR PAJN AS STRONGER NORTHERLY OFF-SHORE WINDS
DEVELOP. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LESS CONFIDENCE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS GO AROUND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS, BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF A
MARINE LAYER AND PATCHY FOG, ALBEIT IN LESS COVERAGE.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS:
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE YUKON, AND A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GOING TO
BECOME MORE PROMINENT THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS. FROM ALSEK WEST
TO CAPE ST. ELIAS, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER, EXPECT SPEEDS TO REACH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CHICHAGOF/BARANOF ARCHIPELAGO AND OUT OF
CHATHAM STRAIT. MARINERS ATTEMPTING TO ROUND CAPE OMMANEY OR
DECISION SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT,
ESPECIALLY DURING FLOODING TIDES. FAVORING THE COAST WILL LIMIT
FETCH POTENTIAL.
TOUCHING ON SEAS, CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DOMINANT
WSW GROUP 7 TO 10 FT FOCUSED NEAR 10 SECONDS FROM THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS TO PRINCE OF WALES. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE
WNW, GENERATED FROM NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS OUT OF COOK INLET,
RESPONSIBLE FOR 10 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE WAVE SYSTEMS
ARE BURYING SOUTHERLY TROPICAL SWELL FOCUSED AT NEAR 14 SECONDS.
MOVING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WSW SEAS TREND DOWNWARD, WITH
THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED W TO NW WAVE SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF COOK INLET AND WESTERN GULF. EXPECT THIS GROUP TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 6 TO 8 FT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY FORERUNNERS FROM SWELL GENERATED FROM
HURRICANE LOWELL BEGINS TO REACH THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS REACHING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECTING PEAK SWELL CONDITIONS AT 2
TO 4 FT 15 SECONDS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST INTO SATURDAY. RIDING
ON TOP OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WNW WIND WAVES, BRINGING SOME CHOP
INTO THE POW COAST AND DIXON ENTRANCE.
INSIDE WATERS:
WHILE WINDS ARE GOING SLACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE INSIDE THIS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINERS NAVIGATING THE INNER CHANNELS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
NORTHERLY THREAT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING A MINIMUM OF
FRESH BREEZES FOR MOST WATERS ALONG AND NORTH OF FREDERICK BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON; LYNN CANAL WILL SEE STRONG BREEZES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO ESCALATE THURSDAY EVENING, WITH
STRONG BREEZES FOR MUCH OF CHATHAM STRAIT AND NEAR-GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS FOR LYNN CANAL. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL FOR CLARENCE THURSDAY EVENING, LIKELY REACHING
FRESH BREEZES.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE LONG FETCH OF CHATHAM AND LYNN,
WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. TO REITERATE
THE WAVE THREAT, MARINERS NAVIGATING LYNN AND CHATHAM SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND TIDAL CYCLES GENERATING HIGHER
LOCALIZED SEAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR POINT COUVERDEN, CAPE OMMANEY, AND
CAPE DECISION. OUR WAVE FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION
TIDAL INFLUENCES.
WINDS WILL COME DOWN SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH SEA
BREEZES BECOMING THE PRIMARY FOCUS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317-325-
326.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031>033-641>643-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
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