994
FXAK67 PAJK 172349
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GALES FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING SEAS.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN THE MAIN STORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM JUNEAU AND NORTH TO SKAGWAY HAVE
BEEN ON THE STRONGER SIDE. SPECIFICALLY NEAR SKAGWAY, WIND GUSTS UP
TO NEAR 45 MPH HAVE BEEN MEASURED. SIMILARLY, WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL
HAVE SEEN GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS (52 MPH) OBSERVED. THESE STRONGER WINDS
AND PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING. THURSDAY WILL THEN BRING MORE OF A BREAK
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF, AND INTO SE AK.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO
THE NE GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING STRONGER WINDS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. CURRENTLY 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE NORTH/CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND AROUND 1 INCH
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS, THERE IS ABOUT A
60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS AND ABOUT A 30% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THERE
IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY, NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE STRONG
WIND AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST
TO NW CANADA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT
EVENTUALLY POSITIONS ITSELF OVER SW MAINLAND ALASKA. THE BROAD
TROUGH STAYS IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES ARE EVIDENT ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS NOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHARPEN AND NARROW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MID NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA.
AT THE SURFACE, THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
INTERESTING WITH A STRONG BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GULF FROM THE SW AND HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE TRACK THIS LOW IS TAKING IS SHAPING UP FOR AT LEAST A DAY AND
A HALF OF STRONG AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SW FOR THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE AND GULF. WINDS IN THE GULF WILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 25 TO
35 KT WINDS SAT INTO SUNDAY, AND THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS COULD
SEE SEVERAL AREAS OF 20 TO 30 KT DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. AS
FOR RAINFALL, EXPECTED 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GETTING INTO
THE 1.5 TO 3 INCH RANGE FOR MANY AREAS FOR AROUND 2 TO 3 DAYS IN A
ROW STARTING FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN RATES STILL APPEAR TO BE FROM
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST 24 HOUR ANNUAL RETURN
INTERVALS FROM THE NBM ARE SHOWING GREATER THEN 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 2 YR RETURN INTERVALS IN MANY PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GREATER THEN
15 PERCENT FOR EXCEEDING 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONGER ONSHORE SW FLOW THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING, IT ITS WAKE IS A SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BE COMING IN
FROM THE WEST. FORECAST CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE ALREADY INDICATING
THAT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE RATHER CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY IN NATURE
AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GULF AND OUTER COAST AT
THAT TIME. RETAINED THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE THUNDER
THAT HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THAT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT NOW.
DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING, BUT SHOWERS AND W TO SW WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF MORE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
GULF NEXT WEEK, WITH AGREEMENT GROWING ON A LOW COMING UP FROM THE
S TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM AND
WHERE IT GOES ONCE IT GETS INTO THE GULF IS STILL AN OPEN ENDED
QUESTION AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/..WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INITIALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH A FEW SITES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL DEGRADE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A STRONG FRONT
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING,
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH THIS FRONT'S ARRIVAL, CEILINGS WILL DIP
INTO MVFR CRITERIA BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT EXPECTED AS THE DAY
GOES ON. ALONGSIDE GUSTY WINDS, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN AND NE GULF COAST WITH THIS NEXT FRONT, AND OTHER
AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
POTENTIALLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW TO W HAVE MAINTAINED FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES, THOUGH BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN TO MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE-LY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8
TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF TODAY BEGIN DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT TO 4 TO 6 FT BY THURSDAY. SEAS BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTH FRIDAY. SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET, AND
UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
INSIDE CHANNELS: WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL, ICY
STRAIT AND NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NEAR GALE
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS TO 50 KTS. AFTERNOON GALES IN NORTH LYNN
CANAL DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING, AND TO 15 TO 20 KT BY
TOMORROW MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND
BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTH AND WEAKENS. PREDOMINATELY S TO SE-LY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH INTO THE GULF. WINDS INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 3
TO 4 FEET WITHIN THE LARGER N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...AFG
MARINE...ANC
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