539
FXAK67 PAJK 181402
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
602 AM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GALES FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING SEAS.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT / THERE IS A LOW MOVING
NORTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND THAT IS ALSO SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST. THE WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY FEATURE INCREASES TO A
GALE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN WEAKENING. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER
IMPULSE, BUT WILL ADD A ADDITION OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SW OF
THE KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING WILL CURL UP INTO THE EASTERN
GULF WITH ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WITH A BIG
BURST OF RAIN, AND WIND SUNDAY. RAIN FALL TOTALS OVER THE COUPLE
OF 24 HOURS PERIODS ARE 2 TO 3 INCHES.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOVING ON INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINS
SIMILARLY ACTIVE AS THIS WEEKEND. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW BEING DRIVEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IS
FAIRLY STRONG, BUT LOOKING AT TUESDAY AND ONWARD, THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE. AS SUCH, EXPECTING A RAINY
AND WINDY SITUATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORKWEEK. RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, THOUGH NOT AS HEAVY
AS SATURDAY. THE ISSUE WILL BECOME THE PERSISTENCE OF RAINFALL, AS
PROBABILITY OF 24 HR ARIS EXCEEDING 2 YEARS IS INCREASING OVER
75% FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SOME CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST, KEEPING COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A POSSIBILITY FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BECAUSE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL NOT BE PASSING ITS CENTRAL LOW
DIRECTLY THROUGH SE AK, WINDS WILL SETTLE FOR THE INSIDE CHANNELS,
BUT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WINDS REMAIN STRONGER OVER THE GULF. AS
MENTIONED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FOR THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM, BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MORE POORLY FORMED STRUCTURE,
AND WEATHER ACTIVITY REDUCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
A SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES,
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH SOME OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS ALLOWED
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
MAINLY FOR PAPG, PAWG, PAJN, AND PAGS. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
IS CURRENTLY VFR WITH HIGH OVC TO BKN CIGS, AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS SEEING A LINGERING LOW OVC DECK AROUND 2500
FT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OUTER COAST AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAINFALL. AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP AND REACHES THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE MORNING, IT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT,
INCREASED WINDS, AND LOWERED VIS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
CIGS AOB 1500 FT AND GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS PEAKING IN THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LLWS OF 30 TO
40 KTS IS EXPECTED FOR PAYA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TO MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SE-LY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF TODAY BEGIN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO 4 TO 6 FT BY
THURSDAY. SEAS BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH FRIDAY. SEAS
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET, AND UP TO 12 FT NEAR
THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER SYSTEMS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AND INCREASE OF WIND AND
HIGHER SEAS.
INSIDE CHANNELS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET
WITHIN THE LARGER N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS. ANOTHER SYSTEMS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AND INCREASE OF WIND AND
HIGHER SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-651-652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
661-662.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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