557
FXAK67 PAJK 181725
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
925 AM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2026
UPDATE
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 602 AM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GALES FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
INCREASING SEAS.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT / THERE IS A LOW MOVING
NORTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND THAT IS ALSO SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST. THE WINDS WITH THE FRIDAY FEATURE INCREASES TO A
GALE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN WEAKENING. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER
IMPULSE, BUT WILL ADD A ADDITION OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SW OF
THE KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING WILL CURL UP INTO THE EASTERN
GULF WITH ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY WITH A BIG
BURST OF RAIN, AND WIND SUNDAY. RAIN FALL TOTALS OVER THE COUPLE
OF 24 HOURS PERIODS ARE 2 TO 3 INCHES.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOVING ON INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINS
SIMILARLY ACTIVE AS THIS WEEKEND. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW BEING DRIVEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IS
FAIRLY STRONG, BUT LOOKING AT TUESDAY AND ONWARD, THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE. AS SUCH, EXPECTING A RAINY
AND WINDY SITUATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORKWEEK. RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, THOUGH NOT AS HEAVY
AS SATURDAY. THE ISSUE WILL BECOME THE PERSISTENCE OF RAINFALL, AS
PROBABILITY OF 24 HR ARIS EXCEEDING 2 YEARS IS INCREASING OVER
75% FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SOME CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST, KEEPING COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A POSSIBILITY FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BECAUSE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL NOT BE PASSING ITS CENTRAL LOW
DIRECTLY THROUGH SE AK, WINDS WILL SETTLE FOR THE INSIDE CHANNELS,
BUT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WINDS REMAIN STRONGER OVER THE GULF. AS
MENTIONED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FOR THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM, BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MORE POORLY FORMED STRUCTURE,
AND WEATHER ACTIVITY REDUCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO VARY WITH CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH TODAY AS
A FRONT IMPACTS THE PANHANDLE. WITH THIS FRONT MOVING IN, CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN TO MVFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR WHILE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWERED DUE TO THE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
STRONGER WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR AREAS OF LLWS THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE STRETCHING DOWN TO THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
MVFR WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. SOME
CONCERN EXISTS FOR LLWS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF SITKA BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THIS TAF CYCLE. WILL LOOK MORE
INTO THIS CONCERN BEFORE THE ISSUANCE OF THE 00Z TAFS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TO MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SE-LY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRENGTHENING LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE GULF. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF TODAY BEGIN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO 4 TO 6 FT BY
THURSDAY. SEAS BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH FRIDAY. SEAS
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET, AND UP TO 12 FT NEAR
THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER SYSTEMS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AND INCREASE OF WIND AND
HIGHER SEAS.
INSIDE CHANNELS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET
WITHIN THE LARGER N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS. ANOTHER SYSTEMS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AND INCREASE OF WIND AND
HIGHER SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
661>663.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...BEZENEK
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