946
FXAK67 PAJK 190129
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
529 PM AKDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS.
- A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE YAKUTAT, SKAGWAY, AND
HAINES AREAS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH SUNDAY.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT MOVING IN TODAY BROUGHT STRONG,
GUSTY SE WINDS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AS WELL AS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS THOUGH LESS SO IN INTENSITY THAN THE OUTER WATERS, ALL
FUELED BY A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS CLOSELY
BEHIND. THOUGH, FOLLOWING THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE WILL A BRIEF BREAK IN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
RAIN WILL LIGHTEN SOME, BEFORE THE SECONDARY SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION BY TOMORROW EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS BREAK PERIOD BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AS ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SE AK.
THE LOW MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BRING
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LAND AREAS LEADING TO
A HIGH WIND WATCH TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS SYSTEM. ALSO EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. CURRENTLY 24 HOUR RAIN
TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECTED
STORM TOTAL QPF ACROSS THE NORTH CURRENTLY 2.5 TO 3 INCHES FROM
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED ARIS OF 2-5
YEARS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT TRENDING DOWNWARDS,
LEADING TO THE FORECASTER DECISION TO GENERALLY LOWER AMOUNTS BY
0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THOUGH, WITH A
CONSISTENT PUSH OF MOISTURE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING SOME
PERIODS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING, AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE LEADING TO SNOW MELT OVER GLACIERS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES
OF SKAGWAY, WHITE PASS, AND HAINES.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PATTERN ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MOVING ON INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINS
SIMILARLY ACTIVE AS THIS WEEKEND. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LOW BEING DRIVEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF IS
FAIRLY STRONG, BUT LOOKING AT TUESDAY AND ONWARD, THE EVENTUAL
PATH OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE. AS SUCH, EXPECTING A RAINY
AND WINDY SITUATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE
WORKWEEK. RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, THOUGH NOT AS HEAVY
AS SATURDAY. THE ISSUE WILL BECOME THE PERSISTENCE OF RAINFALL, AS
PROBABILITY OF 24 HR ARIS EXCEEDING 2 YEARS IS INCREASING OVER
75% FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SOME CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST, KEEPING COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A POSSIBILITY FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BECAUSE THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL NOT BE PASSING ITS CENTRAL LOW
DIRECTLY THROUGH SE AK, WINDS WILL SETTLE FOR THE INSIDE CHANNELS,
BUT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WINDS REMAIN STRONGER OVER THE GULF. AS
MENTIONED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FOR THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM, BUT IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE A MORE POORLY FORMED STRUCTURE,
AND WEATHER ACTIVITY REDUCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AK ARE QUITE VARIABLE AS WE SEE THE
ONSET OF THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO COME THIS WEEKEND. RAIN AND
WINDS ARE PICKING UP, AND CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING AND LOWERING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF GREATER MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY. CIGS
WILL BE DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR FOR ALMOST ALL SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO RECOVER WELL ON SATURDAY. A
CONTINUOUS STATE OF RAINFALL AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LARGELY MVFR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
FAIRLY STRONG, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 15-20KT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION AS WELL.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE BEGUN
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF PUSHES
INLAND. WINDS THOUGH THE INNER CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS UNTIL TONIGHT. THERE WILL
THEN BE SHORT LULL IN THE MARINE WINDS, STILL REMAINING AROUND 10 TO
15 KTS, UNTIL THE NEXT/STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE GULF. OVERALL WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW AROUND 980 MB PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHERNLY AND EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CHANNELS WILL BE AROUND 20
TO 30 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE
STRAIT UP TO 35 KTS. FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN LYNN CANAL WILL START TO SEE
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOST
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER THE PANHANDLE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS INCREASED TO 30 TO 35 KTS
ACROSS THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVED NORTH INTO THE GULF. THIS ALSO
CREATED BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF TODAY. WAVES AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SUBSIDE
AND DIMINISH AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TO 4 TO 6 FT BY SATURDAY.
THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOT FAR BEHIND AS WINDS AND
WAVES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BUILD LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDE SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 40 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO
20 FT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. THE GULF WILL THEN GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM STRONG WINDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK
AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR AKZ318-319.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ318-319.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-
661>664.
SHORT TERM...BAS
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...EAB
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