308
FXAK67 PAJK 191431
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
631 AM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS.
- A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE SKAGWAY, AND HAINES AREAS
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH SUNDAY. YAKUTAT HAS A WIND
ADVISORY WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH SUNDAY.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT
WITH WAVES ON IT THAT IS FINISHING MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE,
WITH A BRIEF BREAK. THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND IS WRAPPING UP NICELY
ABOUT THE CENTRAL LOW THAT IS ABOUT ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. THE IS TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SHOULD BE
ROLLING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE MAIN WEATHER FRONT WILL
BE LEADING THE WAY WITH STRONG WINDS TO THE COASTAL AREAS,
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR SO AROUND YAKUTAT. THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP INTO THE PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL PUSH THE WIND SPEEDS UP
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY BE PUSHING TO
GUSTS OF 60 MPH SO A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
HIGH LEVELS OF EXPECTED ARIS FROM THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS OUT
FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW REDEVELOPS IN THE GULF MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY TO MIDWEEK. ONCE THE LOW REDEVELOPS,
IT WILL BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LESS ORGANIZED WAVES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIDWEEK LOW LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MORE ALIGNED TODAY BETWEEN MODELS, WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LOW
CENTER LOCATION AND MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON TIMING AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE MORE SHOWERY REGIME EXPECTED
MIDWEEK AND SPREAD ON THE LOW'S TRACK. THE LOW ALSO BECOMES MORE
POORLY FORMED AND UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS SOME SOLUTIONS
KEEP IT STRONGER FOR LONGER AND MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WHILE
OTHERS HAVE IT FALLING APART FURTHER OFFSHORE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE. GENERALLY THOUGH, RAINY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ONLY BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH BY LATE WEEK AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO FALL APART.
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MONDAY ALONG THE COAST,
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS
AND PUSHING INTO THE OUTER COASTLINE THROUGH THE DAY, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY GOES ON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE
NIGHT.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
LOWERED CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS
MORNING AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AND ANOTHER, STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
SITES ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO STAY LOWERED AS RAIN CONTINUES AND WINDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A VERY SHORT BREAK BEHIND
THE CURRENT FRONT AND BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT, BUT THIS MAY NOT EVEN
IMPROVE CONDITIONS ABOVE MVFR. THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOWERED CIGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FT AND
RESTRICTED VIS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS TO MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. 45 TO 50 KT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT PROMPTED THE ADDITION OF LLWS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOWERED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THERE WILL BE SHORT LULL IN THE MARINE
WINDS, STILL REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS, UNTIL THE
NEXT/STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. OVERALL
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A
LOW AROUND 980 MB PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SOUTHERNLY AND
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CHANNELS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT UP TO
35 KTS. FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN LYNN CANAL WILL START TO SEE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOST
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER THE PANHANDLE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WAVES AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SUBSIDED AND DIMINISH AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TO 4 TO 6 FT BY
SATURDAY. THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOT FAR BEHIND
AS WINDS AND WAVES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BUILD LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDE SPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS, AND
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE GULF WILL THEN GET A BRIEF
BREAK FROM STRONG WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER IS
STILL IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE GULF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ317.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AKZ318-319.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ318-319.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-644-651-652-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>643-
661-662-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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