626
FXAK67 PAJK 191824 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1024 AM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE IN
ANTICIPATION OF THE FRONT INCOMING FOR THIS EVENING. THE HIGH
WIND WATCHES THAT WERE UP FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY WERE ALSO CHANGED
TO WIND ADVISORIES AS WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY SUB 60 MPH GUSTS AT
BOTH PLACES. HOWEVER WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ONE OR TWO
GUSTS AT SKAGWAY THAT DO REACH 60 MPH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW ON THAT POSSIBILITY.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS.
- A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE SKAGWAY, AND HAINES AREAS
FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH SUNDAY. YAKUTAT HAS A WIND
ADVISORY WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH SUNDAY.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / THE REMAINS OF LAST
NIGHT'S FRONT WITH WAVES ON IT, IS FINISHING MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK FROM WINDS AND HEAVIER
RAIN TODAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND IS WRAPPING UP NICELY ABOUT THE
CENTRAL LOW THAT IS ABOUT ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THAT
SYSTEM IS TRACKING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SHOULD BE ROLLING INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER FRONT WILL BE
LEADING THE WAY WITH STRONG WINDS TO THE COASTAL AREAS, EXPECTING
GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR SO AROUND YAKUTAT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL PUSH THE WIND SPEEDS UP THROUGH THE INNER
CHANNELS. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY BE PUSHING TO GUSTS OF 60 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
HIGH LEVELS OF EXPECTED ARIS FROM THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS OUT
FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW REDEVELOPS IN THE GULF MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY TO MIDWEEK. ONCE THE LOW REDEVELOPS,
IT WILL BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LESS ORGANIZED WAVES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIDWEEK LOW LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MORE ALIGNED TODAY BETWEEN MODELS, WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LOW
CENTER LOCATION AND MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON TIMING AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE MORE SHOWERY REGIME EXPECTED
MIDWEEK AND SPREAD ON THE LOW'S TRACK. THE LOW ALSO BECOMES MORE
POORLY FORMED AND UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS SOME SOLUTIONS
KEEP IT STRONGER FOR LONGER AND MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WHILE
OTHERS HAVE IT FALLING APART FURTHER OFFSHORE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE. GENERALLY THOUGH, RAINY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ONLY BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH BY LATE WEEK AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO FALL APART.
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MONDAY ALONG THE COAST,
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS
AND PUSHING INTO THE OUTER COASTLINE THROUGH THE DAY, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY GOES ON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE
NIGHT.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...NOT VERY GOOD AVIATION
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SATURDAY IS
LOOKING LIKE THE BEST (THOUGH STILL NOT VERY GOOD) FLYING WEATHER
OVERALL AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN MAJOR SYSTEMS WITH SOME MINOR
WAVES MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY MVFR CONDITIONS RULE THE PANHANDLE
WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR DUE TO EITHER CEILINGS OR VIS AS A WEAKER
LOW COMES ASHORE NEAR CAPE DECISION LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO APPARENT WITH HIGHEST SURFACE WINDS (UP TO 35 KT) OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS AND PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH A LITTLE AS WE FALL IN BETWEEN THE LOW THIS MORNING AND
THE STRONGER FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT (STILL WILL
HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS FOR MOST AREAS). HOWEVER BY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WE WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT STRONGER
FRONT START MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
VIS TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO
HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL WITH SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 KT OR MORE FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, AND WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING TO 45 TO POSSIBLY 50 KT OUT OF THE SE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SO EXPECT
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (MAINLY OF THE SPEED VARIETY) AND TURBULENCE
OVERNIGHT.
INTO SUNDAY, THE MAIN FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH, BUT STRONG SW
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMING IN BEHIND IT WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS, BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH
UP THROUGH THAT AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL DOES
DIMINISH, BUT AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST COULD SEE SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SWITCH TO MORE SW AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO. THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BRING A NEW CONCERN INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH QUITE A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THERE WILL BE SHORT LULL IN THE MARINE
WINDS, STILL REMAINING AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS, UNTIL THE
NEXT/STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. OVERALL
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A
LOW AROUND 980 MB PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SOUTHERNLY AND
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CHANNELS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT UP TO
35 KTS. FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN LYNN CANAL WILL START TO SEE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOST
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER THE PANHANDLE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WAVES AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY
SUBSIDED AND DIMINISH AND WILL CONTINUE SAT MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT.
THE NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOT FAR BEHIND AS WINDS AND
WAVES ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BUILD LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDE SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 40 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 15 TO
20 FT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. THE GULF WILL THEN GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM STRONG WINDS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK
AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ318-
319.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AKZ318-319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
AKZ320>325-327.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-644-651-652-663-664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>643-
661-662-672.
UPDATE...EAL
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...BEZENEK
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