975
FXAK67 PAJK 192353
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS.
- A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WIND ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR MANY AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE FOR GUSTS
OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING IS MOVING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT ALREADY SPREAD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING AN INCREASE TO WINDS FOR THE
PANHANDLE WITH A LOT OF PLACES EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS GUSTING 40-50
MPH STARTING THIS EVENING AND GOING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASING FIRST WITH WIND GUSTS PEAKING
TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW. FARTHER NORTH, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THIS EVENING AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO START
AROUND 8-10PM AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW
BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH TOMORROW EVENING.
BESIDES THE STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME AND MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES OF
RAIN FOR THE STORM TOTAL. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER THE FRONT
SUPPORTING THIS WIND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. THESE SHOWERS COULD
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LEFT THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
WITH THE LOW PERSISTING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
NEXT BRIEF BREAK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS WE SEE A
GAP BETWEEN THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA AND THE
NEXT ONE THAT MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW REDEVELOPS IN THE GULF MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY TO MIDWEEK. ONCE THE LOW REDEVELOPS,
IT WILL BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW LESS ORGANIZED WAVES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS MIDWEEK LOW LOOKS TO BE A
BIT MORE ALIGNED TODAY BETWEEN MODELS, WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LOW
CENTER LOCATION AND MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON TIMING AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE MORE SHOWERY REGIME EXPECTED
MIDWEEK AND SPREAD ON THE LOW'S TRACK. THE LOW ALSO BECOMES MORE
POORLY FORMED AND UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS SOME SOLUTIONS
KEEP IT STRONGER FOR LONGER AND MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WHILE
OTHERS HAVE IT FALLING APART FURTHER OFFSHORE OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE. GENERALLY THOUGH, RAINY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, ONLY BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH BY LATE WEEK AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO FALL APART.
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MONDAY ALONG THE COAST,
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS
AND PUSHING INTO THE OUTER COASTLINE THROUGH THE DAY, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AS THE DAY GOES ON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE
NIGHT.
AVIATION...NOT VERY GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS RULE THE PANHANDLE WITH
SOME ISOLATED IFR DUE TO EITHER CEILINGS OR VIS DUE TO HEAVIER
SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO APPARENT WITH HIGHEST SURFACE WINDS
(UP TO 30 KT) OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SKAGWAY. PILOT
REPORTS TODAY HAVE MAINLY BEEN REPORTING TURBULENCE FOR MANY
AREAS. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WE WILL START TO SEE THE NEXT
STRONGER FRONT START MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY VIS TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS WELL WITH SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 35
KT OR MORE FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING TO 45 TO POSSIBLY 50 KT OUT OF THE SE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SO EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (MAINLY OF THE SPEED VARIETY) AND TURBULENCE OVERNIGHT.
INTO SUNDAY, THE MAIN FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH, BUT STRONG SW
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMING IN BEHIND IT WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS, BUT
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH
UP THROUGH THAT AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL DOES
DIMINISH, BUT AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST COULD SEE SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SWITCH TO MORE SW AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO. TURBULENCE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A FACTOR
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BRING A
NEW CONCERN INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH QUITE A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO
SUN NIGHT AT LEAST. HIGHEST POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE
ALONG THE OUTER COAST, BUT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL
HAIL.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE
STARTED TO SEE INCREASES IN WIND SPEEDS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS. SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER INTO THE GULF. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND INTO CHATHAM AND
SUMNER STRAIT. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL SPECIFICALLY SEE WINDS NEAR 35
KTS THIS EVENING. SOON TO FOLLOW LYNN CANAL WILL START TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONGEST WINDS MOST
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LYNN CANAL IS ALSO VERY LIKELY TO SEE WINDS
NEAR 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS. WITH HOW STRONG THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS, WITH LOWEST PRESSURE AROUND 975 MB, THERE IS THE
CHANCE THAT AREAS SEE STRONGER THAN FORECASTED WINDS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR EAST TO WEST FACING CHANNELS. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER THE
PANHANDLE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT
WEEK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS AND WAVES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. IN THE FAR OFF SHORE WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40
KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS. ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS,
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH HIGHEST WAVES
AROUND 15 TO 20 FT ACROSS THE GULF. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE GULF WILL THEN GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM STRONG WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL
IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ318-
319.
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AKZ318-319.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR
AKZ320>325-327.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAB
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