498
FXAK67 PAJK 201850 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1050 AM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. IN
ADDITION, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER ACTIVE ACROSS THE
OUTER COAST FROM BARANOF ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD AND SOME STORMS HAVE
GOTTEN INTO THE INNER CHANNELS AT TIMES. A FEW SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT.
MORE OF THESE STATEMENTS COULD BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST FOR THE NE GULF COAST
AND SOME PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS
- A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WIND ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR MANY AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE FOR GUSTS
OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT / THE MAIN WEATHER FRONT
FROM THE PARENT LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIT THE PANHANDLE AREA ON SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE MAIN GULF IS
VERY CONVECTIVE WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SHORELINE FROM CAPE
SUCKLING TO NEAR SITKA. EXPECT THE THUNDER TO CONTINUE THERE TO
THE AFTERNOON, AND AS THE LOW IN THE GULF SHIFTS EAST A BIT THE
POTENTIAL THUNDER TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE MONDAY BUT
LIKELY STAYING NEAR THE WEST COASTAL SIDE. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH PACIFIC WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE GULF AND THEN THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY.
FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A LOW REDEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF, CONTINUING TO BRING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERY
ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THEM LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW APPEARS
TO REDEVELOP AROUND 140W EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LOOKING NOTABLY LESS
STRONG THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF THAT IMPACTED THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A FEW LESS ORGANIZED AND SHOWERY WAVES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS MIDWEEK LOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE ALIGNED TODAY
BETWEEN MODELS ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH ALL OF THEM APPEARING TO SHIFT THE LOW AND FRONT
SOUTHWARD A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL TUESDAY TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME, WITH
SOME AREAS AROUND KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA SEEING POTENTIAL FOR UP
TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAND MOVES THROUGH. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
DUE TO THE MORE SHOWERY REGIME EXPECTED MIDWEEK AND THE SPREAD ON
THE LOW'S TRACK/LOCATION ESPECIALLY MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FURTHER WEST, WHILE SOME HAVE IT
MOVING IN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE LOW CENTER SITTING EAST OF
140W DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE MARINE WINDS, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
OFFSHORE OR HOW CLOSE TO THE PANHANDLE THE MAIN LOW CENTER ENDS UP
MOVING TO.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...AVIATION WEATHER IS NOT VERY
GOOD. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE OUTER
COAST FROM BARANOF ISLAND NORTHWESTWARD. SOME STORMS HAVE EVEN
BEEN OBSERVED AS FAR INLAND AS BERNERS BAY AND PETERSBURG THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF
TURBULENCE AROUND THE AREA INCLUDING ONE REPORT OF SEVERE
TURBULENCE IN TAIYA INLET AT 1500 FT. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CONTINUING WITH SURFACE GUSTS REACHING 40 KT IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
WINDS ALOFT AROUND 2000 FT AROUND 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST. ALL OF
THESE CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SPREADING SE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTO LATER TONIGHT,
WINDS, TURBULENCE, AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD START TO
SUBSIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
OUTER COAST WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS, AND VIS AND CEILING POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR IN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE...
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER INTO THE GULF. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND INTO
CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAIT. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL SPECIFICALLY SEE
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS THIS EVENING. SOON TO FOLLOW LYNN CANAL WILL
START TO SEE WINDS INCREASE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LYNN CANAL IS ALSO
VERY LIKELY TO SEE WINDS NEAR 35 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
KTS. WITH HOW STRONG THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS, WITH LOWEST
PRESSURE AROUND 975 MB, THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT AREAS SEE
STRONGER THAN FORECASTED WINDS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR EAST
TO WEST FACING CHANNELS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER THE PANHANDLE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS AND WAVES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. IN THE FAR OFF SHORE WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40
KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS. ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS,
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH HIGHEST WAVES
AROUND 15 TO 20 FT ACROSS THE GULF. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE GULF WILL THEN GET A BRIEF BREAK
FROM STRONG WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL
IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS OR STRONGER CELLS THAT
ARE ACTIVE FOR 30 TO 60 MIN AS THE CELL APPROACHES THE COAST BASED
ON LIGHTNING DETECTION BY SATELLITE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317-320>325-
327.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ318-319.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ318-319.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-643-644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641-642-
661.
UPDATE...EAL
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...BEZENEK
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