756
FXAK67 PAJK 210010
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
410 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST FOR THE NE GULF COAST
AND SOME PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WIND ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE FOR GUSTS OF
40 TO 55 MPH.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTHEAST ALASKA
HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS
EVENING AS THE CENTER MOVES TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WHILE THE
LOW REMAINS IN THE AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE GOING INTO TOMORROW FOR THE PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD BE GUSTY AND HAVE HEAVY PERIODS OF RAIN. AS THE LOW
MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY
WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST BUT THE
GRADIENT OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN
TODAY. THE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH
MORE RAIN AND WIND MOVING INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A LOW REDEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF, CONTINUING TO BRING WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERY
ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THEM LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW APPEARS
TO REDEVELOP AROUND 140W EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LOOKING NOTABLY LESS
STRONG THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF THAT IMPACTED THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A FEW LESS ORGANIZED AND SHOWERY WAVES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS MIDWEEK LOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE ALIGNED TODAY
BETWEEN MODELS ON THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH ALL OF THEM APPEARING TO SHIFT THE LOW AND FRONT
SOUTHWARD A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL TUESDAY TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME, WITH
SOME AREAS AROUND KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA SEEING POTENTIAL FOR UP
TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAND MOVES THROUGH. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
DUE TO THE MORE SHOWERY REGIME EXPECTED MIDWEEK AND THE SPREAD ON
THE LOW'S TRACK/LOCATION ESPECIALLY MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FURTHER WEST, WHILE SOME HAVE IT
MOVING IN TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE LOW CENTER SITTING EAST OF
140W DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE MARINE WINDS, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
OFFSHORE OR HOW CLOSE TO THE PANHANDLE THE MAIN LOW CENTER ENDS UP
MOVING TO.
AVIATION
AVIATION WEATHER IS NOT VERY GOOD. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE ENTIRE OUTER
COAST. SOME STORMS HAVE EVEN BEEN OBSERVED AS FAR INLAND AS
STEPHENS PASSAGE AND WRANGELL THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION A FEW
PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF TURBULENCE, WIND SHEAR, AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA INCLUDING ONE REPORT OF SEVERE
TURBULENCE IN TAIYA INLET AT 1500 FT AND SOME +/- 15 KT WIND SHEAR
AT JUNEAU. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO CONTINUING WITH SURFACE GUSTS
REACHING 35 KT IN SOME LOCATIONS AND WINDS ALOFT AROUND 2000 FT
AROUND 25 TO 35 KT SO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LARGELY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL SPREADING SE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. INTO LATER
TONIGHT, WINDS, TURBULENCE, AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD START
TO SUBSIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY BUT WILL
START TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS, AND VIS AND CEILING POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR IN THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): A STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND NEAR
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS
LIFTED INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
AND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG LYNN CANAL SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE
VICINITY OF TAIYA INLET WHICH WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 35 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER THE PANHANDLE
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS AND WAVES HAVE STARTED TO
TREND DOWNWARDS AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, WINDS IN THE
GULF HAVE FALLEN TO 25 KT OR LESS, BUT ERRATIC GUSTS UP TO GALE
FORCE OR STRONGER ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, AND REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS,
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT REACHED AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 FT
ACROSS THE GULF HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL IN STORE FOR MID WEEK AS
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ317-320>325-
327.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ318-319.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ318-319.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>034-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...STJ
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