780
FXAK67 PAJK 211342
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST FOR THE NE GULF COAST
AND SOME PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / POST FRONTAL PATTERN
WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY. A NEW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE GULF AND SPREADING THE NEXT FRONT INTO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH THAT MINOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT LAST FROM 15 MINUTES TO 60
MINUTES. WITH STRIKES OVER THE LIFETIME OF THE CELLS OF 20 TO 50
STRIKES. THERE IS A LARGER CLUSTER OF CELLS TO THE SW OF HAIDA
GWAII. THIS CLUSTER IS TRACKING TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL BE BRINING GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE PANHANDLE,
A IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME COOLER AIR BEING WRAPPED
IN SO THUNDER MAY IN THE OFFER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOO.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE
TAIL END OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE GULF, WITH RAIN AND WIND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND
CALMER WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO SHIFT TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY, BUT NOT FULLY OFFSHORE, SO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
ESPECIALLY, COULD SEE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS. LATE FRIDAY OR
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS BACK TO THE INNER CHANNELS, UP
TO ABOUT 20-25KTS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING UNSEASONABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN, SO THERE IS NO
MAJOR FLOODING CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, DRIVEN BY A DECAYING
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE KENAI. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCTIVE TS PRODUCER, WITH LIGHTNING BEING
REPORTED ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM
THEIR PEAK INTENSITY YESTERDAY AND IN GENERAL, MUCH BETTER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND. PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE CONTINUED TSRA, WITH
VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR INTO MONDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, WITH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DIMINISH VSBY DOWN TO IFR FROM PERIODS OF +RA; HOWEVER, THAT
SHOULD BE THE OUTLIER. IN GENERAL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AND VSBY DROPPING DOWN TO 3SM-5SM FROM -TSRA.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE REDUCTION OF VSBY. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND:
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE HAIDA
GWAII AREA AND IS TRACKING NORTHEAST. EXPECTING THIS CLUSTER TO
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY TO THE NORTHEAST, COMPLICATING ANY MORNING
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES OVER, WITH VFR BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD. WITH THAT SAID, RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE MORNING. MONDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, SERVING
AS THE MECHANISM FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE MVFR TO
BE WIDESPREAD AFTER 212200Z, WITH STRATIFORM RAIN DROPPING VSBY
DOWN TO 2SM TO 5SM.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDER STORM NEAR THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS AND
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CELLS LASTING
UPWARDS OF AN HOUR AS THEY MOVE WITH THE STORM MOTION. GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
WINDS IN THE GULF HAVE FALLEN TO 15 TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN BUT ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COASTLINE THAT IS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING AND MOVING INLAND. .
ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT
REACHED AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE BEGUN TO
SUBSIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
IS STILL IN STORE FOR MID WEEK AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE GULF INTO TUESDAY. 25 TO 30 KT ARE THE EARLY ANTICIPATED WINDS
WITH THE TUESDAY FRONT AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 15KT. THE TUESDAY
LOW ALSO WILL BRING IN SOME MORE PARTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR, SO HAVE
ADDED SCATTERED THUNDER THAT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ318-319.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...BEZENEK
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