497
FXAK67 PAJK 211914 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1114 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2026
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS TIGHT LOW NEAR
HAIDA GWAII MOVES NE TOWARDS THE DIXON ENTRANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO STREAM INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTH. NUDGED POPS UPWARDS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
COMMUNITIES OF POW, KETCHIKAN, AND METLAKATLA AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES, CONTRARY TO A GENERAL GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH A LINE FROM SITKA TO
ANGOON TO FIVE FINGER. ANTICIPATING REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, APPROXIMATELY
FROM CROSS SOUND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE,
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS
THE LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FALLS APART OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
A LARGE MASS OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS MOVING IN
FROM THE WSW IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL STABILITY
DRIVING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST,
MAINLY WITHIN THE VICINITY OF SITKA. THOUGH, NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH INLAND AND IMPACT SITES, AS THEY WILL LIKELY
BE SHEARED APART BY TERRAIN. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS ALSO ON THE UPWARD
TREND. IN GENERAL, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 3000FT AND
BRIEF DROPS IN VSBY TO 3SM-5SM, AS WELL AS ERRATIC 15-20 KNOT
GUSTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NE,
IMPACTING SOUTHERN AND INLAND SITES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS COULD CAUSE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND DROPS TO IFR CONDITIONS
WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT AND REDUCED VSBY TO 2SM-3SM. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM REACHES THE OUTER COAST,
SENDING ANOTHER WAVE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WITH AN UNSTABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE, NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO SETTLE ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF LINGERING FEW-SCT LOW
CLOUDS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF RUNWAYS TOMORROW MORNING WITH
DECREASED WIND SPEEDS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST FOR THE NE GULF COAST
AND SOME PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ICE MELT OCCURRING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / POST FRONTAL PATTERN
WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE DAY. A NEW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE GULF AND SPREADING THE NEXT FRONT INTO MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH THAT MINOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT LAST FROM 15 MINUTES TO 60
MINUTES. WITH STRIKES OVER THE LIFETIME OF THE CELLS OF 20 TO 50
STRIKES. THERE IS A LARGER CLUSTER OF CELLS TO THE SW OF HAIDA
GWAII. THIS CLUSTER IS TRACKING TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL BE BRINING GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE PANHANDLE,
A IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME COOLER AIR BEING WRAPPED
IN SO THUNDER MAY IN THE OFFER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOO.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE
TAIL END OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE GULF, WITH RAIN AND WIND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS AND
CALMER WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO SHIFT TO BE MORE
SOUTHERLY, BUT NOT FULLY OFFSHORE, SO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
ESPECIALLY, COULD SEE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS. LATE FRIDAY OR
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS BACK TO THE INNER CHANNELS, UP
TO ABOUT 20-25KTS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING UNSEASONABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN, SO THERE IS NO
MAJOR FLOODING CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDER STORM NEAR THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS AND
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CELLS LASTING
UPWARDS OF AN HOUR AS THEY MOVE WITH THE STORM MOTION. GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
WINDS IN THE GULF HAVE FALLEN TO 15 TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN BUT ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COASTLINE THAT IS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING AND MOVING INLAND. .
ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT
REACHED AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE BEGUN TO
SUBSIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
IS STILL IN STORE FOR MID WEEK AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE GULF INTO TUESDAY. 25 TO 30 KT ARE THE EARLY ANTICIPATED WINDS
WITH THE TUESDAY FRONT AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 15KT. THE TUESDAY
LOW ALSO WILL BRING IN SOME MORE PARTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR, SO HAVE
ADDED SCATTERED THUNDER THAT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-032>036-053-641>644-651-
652-661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...STJ
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page