608
FXAK67 PAJK 220541
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE FOR THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURES
MOVING INTO THE GULF BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
-POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIETER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY, 2 SEPARATE WEATHER REGIMES
HOLD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING LOW TRACKS
INLAND. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM SITKA TO ANGOON TO FIVE FINGER, BROAD ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THIS TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST LIKE YESTERDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A SPORADIC WIND
GUST UP TO 30 KTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY PASSING
SHOWER OR STORM. FURTHER INLAND, NEAR NEGLIGIBLE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHIN ANY PASSING SHOWER. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THE
WEAKENING LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR AND A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS UP 30 KTS AT SEA LEVEL FOR
ANNETTE ISLAND AND THE KETCHIKAN GATEWAY BOROUGH. NOT
ANTICIPATING LONG LASTING ELEVATED WINDS AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE
OVERALL DECLINE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR A BRIEF LULL LATE
MONDAY. HOWEVER AS IS TYPICAL WITH ACTIVE SEAK FALL WEATHER,
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS, AND
MORE TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR, STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
REACHING PRINCE OF WALES, ANNETTE ISLAND, AND THE KETCHIKAN
BOROUGH AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH LIKELY.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES, HIGHER AT ELEVATION.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON
THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING AND DRYING BY LATE IN THE DAY
AFTER A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THAT STARTED THE WEEK. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS IN THE GULF ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 20-25KTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY, RANGING FROM SATURDAY
MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE AND BRING RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY SEASONABLE
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE IS BRINGING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES, WHERE MVFR
VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE DISTURBANCE
PUSHES EAST AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
NEAR PAPG. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
NORTH NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN, CAUSING RAPID DROPS IN CIGS AND VSBY ALONGSIDE
ERRATIC AND STRONG GUSTS. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15G20-25KT FROM THE E TO SE ON
TUESDAY ALONG ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON SOUTH. SOME POCKETS OF LLWS
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY, AS WINDS 2KFT
ALOFT BECOME S TO SE 25-35KT, ALTHOUGH DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS DIRECTIONAL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY UNIFORM
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THOUGH MOUNTAIN TOP TURBULENCE IS LIKELY.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE
COME DOWN QUITE A BIT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT OPPOSITE
ENDS OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT HOLDING ON
A BIT LONGER UP NEAR TAIYA INLET, AND THEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BRINGING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
AFTER TONIGHT, ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND PUSH ANOTHER FRONT UP THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINDS UP TO 25 KT NORTHWARDS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS IN THE GULF CONTINUE TO
BE 15 TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
BUT ERRATIC GUSTS FROM HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR THE
COASTLINE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT
REACHED AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE BEFORE BUILDING ONCE MORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH THE TUESDAY FRONT AND ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 10 TO 15
FT, WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THIS LOW
WILL BRING IN SOME MORE PARTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR, SO THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...STJ
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