444
FXAK67 PAJK 221428
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
628 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURES
MOVING INTO THE GULF BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF AND CURLING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN WEAKENING. MAIN
FRONTAL BAND WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
PANHANDLE THAT SWEEPS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BASED ON
SATELLITE ESTIMATE THE RAIN BAND WILL BE REACHING PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND. USING LIGHTNING DETECTION ALGORITHMS, THERE HAS BEEN SOME
IN THE BAND AND OVER THE HAIDA GWAII REGION. HAVE THE POTENTIAL
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER QUITE
POTENTIAL THAT THREAT WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. I WILL HAVE TO
REFRESH THE THE WEATHER GRIDS ADD THAT POTENTIAL TO THE FORECAST.
END OF THE WEEK MAY BE DRIER AS THE LOW WEAKENS THE CONTINUED
THREAT OF THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON
THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING AND DRYING BY LATE IN THE DAY
AFTER A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THAT STARTED THE WEEK. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS IN THE GULF ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 20-25KTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY, RANGING FROM SATURDAY
MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE AND BRING RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY SEASONABLE
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS.
AVIATION
A BRIEF BREAK PERIOD HAS KEPT FLYING CONDITIONS GOOD
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING IMPROVED
TO VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE
SEEING SOME LINGERING LOW CIGS OF 800-1500 FT. THESE GOOD FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A FRONTAL
BAND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, REACHING POW AND KETCHIKAN AROUND 16-
18Z THIS MORNING AND PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
ALREADY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE WITH PAKT ALREADY REACHING 10G20KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THIS FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD, WITH 10-15 KT SUSTAINED SE-
LY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT STARTING WITH THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE
AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
IS HIGHEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE, OVER METLAKATLA AND
KETCHIKAN UP ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT, AS WELL AS OVER POW ISLAND, WITH
WINDS AT 2000 FT UP TO 35-45 KT FROM THE SE AROUND 17Z TO 21Z. THE
OUTER CENTRAL COAST ALONG BARANOF ISLAND AND OVER SITKA MAY ALSO SEE
SOME 35 KT LLWS, HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE LLWS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM LLWS AND WIND CONCERNS, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CIGS DOWN TO 2000-3500 FT AS THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN PUSHES IN.
OVERALL VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, AS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS WILL START IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
ALTHOUGH NEAR THE OCEAN ENTRANCE AND STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE OCEAN
ENTRANCES. A WEATHER FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS
AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CELLS LASTING
UPWARDS OF AN HOUR AS THEY MOVE WITH THE STORM MOTION. GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED
TO 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 10 TO 15 FT, WITH HIGHEST
SEAS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF EARLY TUESDAY, AND POST FRONT
SHOULD SEE THUNDER DEVELOPING AS SOME MORE UNSTABLE AIR IS
WRAPPED UP INTO THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED THUNDER THAT WILL APPROACH
THE PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA SO BACK TO FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 15KT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...BEZENEK
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