269
FXAK67 PAJK 221857 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1057 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A SEASONABLE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. EXTENDED THE AREA AND DURATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME STRIKES SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING
AS COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WARM OCEAN
WATERS, HOWEVER STILL THINKING ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SHORT
DURATION AND ISOLATED. ALSO NOT EXPECTING A HIGH WIND OR
WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT AT THIS TIME WITH THIS FRONT, BUT DID ISSUE
A COUPLE OF WIND ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF KETCHIKAN AND
ANNETTE ISLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT FIRST
APPROACHES, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. OTHERWISE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INLAND, WITH FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW IN THE GULF
CONTINUES TO SPEND BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
A FRONTAL BAND PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, BRINGING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, OVER THE WATER. AT THIS TIME, CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY TO SEE A FEW STRIKES ON LAND, NEAR SOUTHERN
TAF SITES, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL DECREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
CELLS MOVING INLAND ARE LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART BY TERRAIN.
WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN REGION WITH PAKT
ALREADY SEEING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THIS FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD, WITH
GENERALLY 10-15 KT SUSTAINED SE- LY WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT
STARTING WITH THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALSO COULD CAUSE BRIEF
LOCALIZED GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR LLWS IS HIGHEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COASTLINE, OVER METLAKATLA AND KETCHIKAN, WITH WINDS AT 2000 FT
AROUND 35-45 KT FROM THE SE BETWEEN 18Z TO 21Z. MUCH OF THE LLWS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING QUICKLY
OVER THE AREA. THE OUTER CENTRAL COAST ALONG BARANOF ISLAND AND
NEAR SITKA MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME TURBULENCE ALONG MOUNTAIN TOPS,
AS CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HAS LOWERED.
ASIDE FROM LLWS AND WIND CONCERNS, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING CIGS DOWN TO 2000-3000 FT AS THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN PUSHES
IN. WITH ESPECIALLY HEAVY SHOWERS, VSBYS CAN BE BRIEFLY REDUCED TO
2-3 SM. OVERALL VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AOA 3000 FT REMAIN AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES, AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURES MOVING
INTO THE GULF BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT /
POST FRONTAL PATTERN WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. A NEW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF AND SPREADING THE NEXT FRONT
INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH THAT MINOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT LAST FROM 15 MINUTES TO 60
MINUTES. WITH STRIKES OVER THE LIFETIME OF THE CELLS OF 20 TO 50
STRIKES. THERE IS A LARGER CLUSTER OF CELLS TO THE SW OF HAIDA
GWAII. THIS CLUSTER IS TRACKING TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL BE BRINING GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE
PANHANDLE, A IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE TAPPED SOME COOLER AIR
BEING WRAPPED IN SO THUNDER MAY IN THE OFFER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TOO.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE TAIL END OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF, WITH RAIN AND WIND DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS AND CALMER WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO SHIFT
TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY, BUT NOT FULLY OFFSHORE, SO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY, COULD SEE MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS. LATE
FRIDAY OR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS BACK TO THE INNER
CHANNELS, UP TO ABOUT 20-25KTS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING UNSEASONABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN, SO
THERE IS NO MAJOR FLOODING CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH A SHORT BREAK OVER
THE PANHANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDER STORM NEAR THE OUTER COASTAL AREAS AND
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CELLS LASTING
UPWARDS OF AN HOUR AS THEY MOVE WITH THE STORM MOTION. GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
WINDS IN THE GULF HAVE FALLEN TO 15 TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN BUT ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COASTLINE THAT IS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING AND MOVING INLAND. .
ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT
REACHED AS HIGH AS 10 TO 13 FT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE BEGUN TO
SUBSIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MONDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
IS STILL IN STORE FOR MID WEEK AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS
THE GULF INTO TUESDAY. 25 TO 30 KT ARE THE EARLY ANTICIPATED WINDS
WITH THE TUESDAY FRONT AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 15KT. THE TUESDAY
LOW ALSO WILL BRING IN SOME MORE PARTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR, SO HAVE
ADDED SCATTERED THUNDER THAT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-641>644-651-652-
661>663-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...BEZENEK
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