813
FXAK67 PAJK 222357
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURES MOVING INTO THE GULF BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE BUT TYPICAL SEAK WEATHER DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES. AS OF 3:30PM AKDT,
THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
OVER TO ANGOON AND DOWN PETERSBURG, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED
EARLIER IN THE MORNING HAVE SINCE BEEN EXPIRED, WITH REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS IN METLAKATLA AND
KETCHIKAN 35 TO 40 MPH, WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD, AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH SOME
SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS FAR NORTH AS JUNEAU INTO THE
EVENING. NOT AS STRONG AS INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NOT MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE, BUT NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT 55 TO 65 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR 600 TO 800 FT. PRECIPITATION
RATES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST, ALBEIT 24
HOUR QPF AMOUNTS DID END UP VERIFYING AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE
YESTERDAY. LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, NO MAJOR
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL- EASTERN GULF, KEEPING PERSISTENT BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM S TO N AS IT
SLOWLY BUT SURELY WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY, A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE ON
THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING AND DRYING BY LATE IN THE DAY
AFTER A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THAT STARTED THE WEEK. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS IN THE GULF ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 20-25KTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY, RANGING FROM SATURDAY
MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE AND BRING RAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE VERY SEASONABLE
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CIGS AOA 3500 FT. HOWEVER, PAHN AND PAGY
COULD SEE FREQUENT DIPS INTO MVFR (CIGS AROUND 2000 FT) WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW LOWER SCUD CLOUDS TO LINGER NEAR
NORTHERN REGION AIRPORTS. IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONT PASSES, THOUGH SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTER GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PAKT, PAKW, PASI, AND PAYA. WINDS IN THE
SOUTH WILL DECREASE, THOUGH CENTRAL SITES MAY STILL EXPERIENCE
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EVENING. NO LLWS CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS UNIFORM. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OCCLUDES, THE INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL LESSEN,
RESULTING IN LESS SEVERE REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS AND CIGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER, AROUND 10-15
KNOTS FROM THE ESE.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
ALONG THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AS A FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO INCLUDE LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY. ICY
STRAIT AND CHATHAM STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONSISTENT WINDS UP
TO 25 KT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF POINT
COUVERDEN AND NEAR CAPE SPENCER. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STAY
SOUTHERLY BUT NOT AS STRONG HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE BROAD LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS
TO THE NE GULF OUT BEYOND 15 NM OFF THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE NE GULF BETWEEN 12 AND
15 FT WITH THE BUILDING GALES. FOR THE SE GULF, WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SWELL DOMINANT SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MEANDERS
TO THE NORTHWEST. SIMILAR TO THE INSIDE WATERS, SOME POST FRONTAL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE GULF FROM
DIXON ENTRANCE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>035-641>644-651-652-
661>663-672.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...STJ
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page