301
FXAK67 PAJK 230643
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1043 PM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED MOVING
ONSHORE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURES MOVING INTO THE GULF BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE BUT TYPICAL SEAK
WEATHER DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES. AS OF 3:30PM AKDT, THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR OVER TO ANGOON AND DOWN
PETERSBURG, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND ADVISORIES ISSUED EARLIER IN THE MORNING
HAVE SINCE BEEN EXPIRED, WITH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25
MPH AND GUSTS IN METLAKATLA AND KETCHIKAN 35 TO 40 MPH, WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD, AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS FAR
NORTH AS JUNEAU INTO THE EVENING. NOT AS STRONG AS INITIALLY
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOT MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE,
BUT NEARBY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT 55 TO 65 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR 600
TO 800 FT. PRECIPITATION RATES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST, ALBEIT 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS DID END UP VERIFYING AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY. LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY, NO MAJOR HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL- EASTERN GULF, KEEPING
PERSISTENT BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING OVER THE PANHANDLE
FROM S TO N AS IT SLOWLY BUT SURELY WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY, A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL
BEGIN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS THE LOW DISSIPATES OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SHIFTS EAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SEAK, BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS, LIGHTER OUTFLOW WINDS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS
CREEPS NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH
A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE FOR POW ISLAND. A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTS IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE BIG
PLAYER THAT WILL SEND THE FRONTS INTO THE GULF AND THROUGH SEAK
WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DUJUAN AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN INTERIOR INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE FRONTS/LOWS WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM IT WILL
TAP INTO DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT. ADDITIONALLY, A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING RESULTING IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT,
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PERSISTING NEAR TO WEST OF THE AREA, WITH
ANOTHER FRONT/LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE INTO THE GULF AND
INTO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. SOME GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS LOW AND BRINGING GALES INTO THE GULF, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GULF
OCCLUDES. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE,
STEADILY TRAVERSING NORTHWARD. SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AND
STRONGER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. LARGER CELLS WILL TYPICALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND,
THOUGH SOME MAY FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, SUMNER
STRAIT, AND CLARENCE STRAIT AND INTENSIFY. STRONGER CELLS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING, THOUGH THIS PROBABILITY GREATLY
DECREASES AS THE CELLS MOVE ONSHORE. THIS VARIABLE PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO START TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BETWEEN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO START TO OPEN UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AND DIMINISH BY THURSDAY.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AS A FRONT CONTINUES
PUSHING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO INCLUDE LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY. ICY
STRAIT AND CHATHAM STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONSISTENT WINDS UP
TO 25 KT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF POINT
COUVERDEN AND NEAR CAPE SPENCER. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL STAY
SOUTHERLY BUT NOT AS STRONG HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT, SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE BROAD LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS
TO THE NE GULF OUT BEYOND 15 NM OFF THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING IN THE NE GULF BETWEEN 12 AND
15 FT WITH THE BUILDING GALES. FOR THE SE GULF, WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SWELL DOMINANT SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MEANDERS
TO THE NORTHWEST. SIMILAR TO THE INSIDE WATERS, SOME POST FRONTAL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE GULF FROM
DIXON ENTRANCE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>035-641>644-651-652-
661>663-672.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...STJ
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