987
FXAK67 PAJK 231353
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED MOVING
ONSHORE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURES MOVING INTO THE GULF BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
AREA.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINS
IN THE GULF. WHILE THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WITH THIS, CONVECTION IS LIKELY, BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS. OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS (TUESDAY), COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE SAW ANYWHERE FROM 0.01-0.45 INCHES OF RAIN, AND
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SAW 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIMILAR TO OR
LESS THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN
IS THE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
WITHIN THE MODELS OF THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS CLEARING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THURSDAY MORNING OR EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
THE LOW TAKES MOVING SOUTH. WHAT IS FOR CERTAIN IS THAT FRIDAY IS
LIKELY TO BE A DRY DAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM..../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS THE LOW DISSIPATES
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SHIFTS EAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SEAK, BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS, LIGHTER OUTFLOW WINDS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS
CREEPS NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH
A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE FOR POW ISLAND. A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTS IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE BIG
PLAYER THAT WILL SEND THE FRONTS INTO THE GULF AND THROUGH SEAK
WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DUJUAN AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN INTERIOR INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE FRONTS/LOWS WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM IT WILL
TAP INTO DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT. ADDITIONALLY, A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING RESULTING IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PERSISTING NEAR TO WEST OF THE AREA,
WITH ANOTHER FRONT/LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE INTO THE GULF
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. SOME GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS LOW AND BRINGING GALES INTO THE GULF, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME
MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY, BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIKE YESTERDAY, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING, UP TO ABOUT
25KT, BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY,
DRIVEN BY A BROAD BAND LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GULF THAT WILL
MAINTAIN STEADY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35KTS,
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AND STEEP, HEAVY
OCEAN SWELLS OF 8-14FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS AND DROPS IN
VISIBILITY DURING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF
DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, WITH
BREEZES SHIFTING EASTERLY AT 10-15KTS, THOUGH HEAVY OCEAN SWELLS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECAY AND LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SETTLING. A BRIEF
BREAK IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AS A
NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GULF.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED THE INITIAL FORECAST, PROMPTING A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO SPEEDS AND AN EARLIER RAMP-DOWN THAT
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. MOST OF THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED CHANNELS
HAVE NOT REACHED THE SPEEDS EXPECTED DUE TO THE MAINLY EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LACK OF CHANNELING OF THE
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SUPPORTED WINDIER CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT IN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND FREDRICK SOUND IN PARTICULAR,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS UP TO 25KTS THROUGH THE MORNING.
AROUND 10AM ON WEDNESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, LEADING TO AN OVERALL REDUCTION
IN WINDS SPEEDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY, COULD SEE SOME LIGHT LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE EFFECTS WITH
CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-034-641>644-651-652-661>663-
672.
SHORT TERM...AGP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...AGP
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