709
FXAK67 PAJK 232353
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
GULF AND FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT REMAINS OVER THE GULF. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS, AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING WINDS. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE
GULF AND THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, VIA SATELLITE AS FAR NORTH AS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS
SOUTHWARD TO DIXON ENTRANCE. LIKE RAIN CHANCES, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DECREASES TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOMORROW.
AS WINDS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND SKY COVER DECREASE AND STAY
LOWER INTO FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON FOG
FORMATION OCCURRING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THEN, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS THE LOW DISSIPATES OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SHIFTS EAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
SEAK, BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS, LIGHTER OUTFLOW WINDS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS
CREEPS NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH
A FEW LOW 60S POSSIBLE FOR POW ISLAND. A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTS IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE BIG
PLAYER THAT WILL SEND THE FRONTS INTO THE GULF AND THROUGH SEAK
WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DUJUAN AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN INTERIOR INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE FRONTS/LOWS WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM IT WILL
TAP INTO DEEPER FEED OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT. ADDITIONALLY, A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING RESULTING IN SOME MODEST INSTABILITY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE QUITE A
BIT, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PERSISTING NEAR TO WEST OF THE AREA,
WITH ANOTHER FRONT/LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE INTO THE GULF
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. SOME GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS LOW AND BRINGING GALES INTO THE GULF, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.
AVIATION
AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND ARE ENJOYING VFR, WITH SOME -SHRA
OUT AND ABOUT. THE MAIN THREAT, AND CONCERN, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HAS BEEN SOUTH OF FREDERICK WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING
INTO THE AREA DROPPING VSBY DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2SM FROM HEAVIER
BURSTS OF RA. ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTS
REACHING BACK UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. EXPECTING TSRA TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WEAKENING TO SHRA AS THE MOVE NORTH
OF FREDERICK SOUND AND MVFR CIGS. THURSDAY LOOKS MUCH LESS
ACTIVE, WITH VFR WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z. THERE COULD BE SOME TSRA FOR
PRINCE OF WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND METLAKATLA, BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOESN'T LOOK AS WIDESPREAD AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS PEAKED MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A BROAD BAND LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GULF
BRINGING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30-35KTS, WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS, AND STEEP, HEAVY OCEAN SWELLS OF 8-14FT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
DROPPING TO 7 FT OR LESS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TURNS
SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A BRIEF BREAK IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AS A NEW
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GULF.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE TO BE
LARGELY 15 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CHANNELING OF THE WINDS IN ASSOCIATED CHANNELS, THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG DUE TO THE LOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND MEANDER MORE
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLACKEN ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS,
LEADING TO AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN WINDS SPEEDS. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD, A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED. THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE EFFECTS WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THESE CLEARER SKIES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY MORNING; LESS CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY PATCHY FOG THURSDAY MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...STJ
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