973
FXAK67 PAJK 240539
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
939 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AS WELL AS THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
GULF AND FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIAL FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT REMAINS OVER THE GULF.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS, AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING WINDS. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS OVER
THE GULF AND THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED, VIA SATELLITE AS FAR NORTH AS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS
SOUTHWARD TO DIXON ENTRANCE. LIKE RAIN CHANCES, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DECREASES TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE ON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOMORROW.
AS WINDS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND SKY COVER DECREASE AND STAY
LOWER INTO FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON FOG
FORMATION OCCURRING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THEN, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS SEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MULTIPLE FRONTS/LOWS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG
PLAYER THAT WILL SEND THE FRONTS INTO THE GULF AND THROUGH SEAK
WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DUJUAN AND ASSOCIATED UPPER- LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN INTERIOR INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETWEEN EACH
FRONT, WEAKER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SEAK
ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
PUSHING EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY S-SELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
RATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GENERATE MODEST INSTABILITY, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING AS
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
GULF, WITH AN ADDITIONAL FRONT/LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW AND BRINGING GALES INTO THE GULF.
WHILE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING, LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR A WET AND ACTIVE PERIOD. WHILE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AROUND A
10-15% PROBABILITY OF PRECIP RATES REACHING 6HR/24HR 2-YEAR RETURN
INTERVAL, EACH SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND A PROLONGED
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
TAKEN HOLD OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH A STEADY IMPROVING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE AREAS IN
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE STILL SEEING SMALL POCKETS OF
SHOWERS BLOW OVER, WHICH MAY BRING PERIODS OF HIGH-END MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOA 2000 FT, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS, AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
FOUND ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM SITKA
SOUTHWARD, BUT THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ONSHORE JUST SOUTH OF KETCHIKAN. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME CELLS FUNNELING INTO
REVILLAGIGEDO CHANNEL, THOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
MUCH FURTHER ONCE THEY REACH LAND. THE CONTINUOUS WAVES OF SHOWERS
THAT HAS BEEN THE PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS IS COMING TO AN END,
AND SHOWER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO PICK UP THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THAT ARE ALREADY SEEING BROKEN CIGS,
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY
AS WELL.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS PEAKED MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY A BROAD BAND LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GULF
BRINGING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30-35KTS, WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS, AND STEEP, HEAVY OCEAN SWELLS OF 8-14FT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
DROPPING TO 7 FT OR LESS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TURNS
SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A BRIEF BREAK IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY WILL COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY AS A NEW
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GULF.
INNER CHANNELS: WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE TO BE
LARGELY 15 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
CHANNELING OF THE WINDS IN ASSOCIATED CHANNELS, THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG DUE TO THE LOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND MEANDER MORE
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLACKEN ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS,
LEADING TO AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN WINDS SPEEDS. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD, A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED. THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE EFFECTS WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THESE CLEARER SKIES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY MORNING; LESS CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY PATCHY FOG THURSDAY MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...STJ
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