118
FXAK67 PAJK 241145
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
- COOLER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING, RAIN CHANCES ALSO LOOK TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WHILE THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
GULF, CHANCES LOOK LOWER THAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DECREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. SATURDAY, OUR NEXT FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY IMPACTING
WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS GENERALLY BRING
THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND TO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS SEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MULTIPLE FRONTS/LOWS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG
PLAYER THAT WILL SEND THE FRONTS INTO THE GULF AND THROUGH SEAK
WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DUJUAN AND ASSOCIATED UPPER- LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN INTERIOR INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETWEEN EACH
FRONT, WEAKER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SEAK
ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
PUSHING EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY S-SELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
RATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GENERATE MODEST INSTABILITY, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING AS
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
GULF, WITH AN ADDITIONAL FRONT/LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW AND BRINGING GALES INTO THE GULF.
WHILE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING, LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR A WET AND ACTIVE PERIOD. WHILE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AROUND A
10-15% PROBABILITY OF PRECIP RATES REACHING 6HR/24HR 2-YEAR RETURN
INTERVAL, EACH SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND A PROLONGED
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FRIDAY,
SOME WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN 10KT OR LESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO ABOUT 20KT TODAY, MAINLY FROM CHATHAM
STRAIT SOUTHWARD.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERALLY
LEADING TO WINDS OF 5-10 KTS IN THE INNER CHANNELS. BASED ON THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN E/W ORIENTED CHANNELS, SUCH AS ICY STRAIT. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AND
LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS AS WELL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WEAKENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE INNER CHANNELS. SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND
FREDRICK SOUND APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY SATURDAY, THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES
FOR THE REGION. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS LEADING TO INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES. DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF, WHERE THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN AS WELL.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD SE ALASKA, BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES
SO. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SECOND
FRONTAL BAND ARE FROM ICY BAY TO CAPE SUCKLING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ642>644-662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...MUSALL
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...MUSALL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page