496
FXAK67 PAJK 241851 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1051 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2026
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
THE CONTINUED MAIN CONCERN OVER THE TODAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF, ESPECIALLY NEAR
BARANOF ISLAND. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
THIS MORNING, VIA SATELLITE. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS, AND SPECIFICALLY SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS.
OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR A
CHANCE THAT A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT LARGER SYSTEM. THIS WEAK TROUGH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY IMPACTS, BUT COULD BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE NE GULF COAST SOONER THAN INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED.
18Z AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
PREDOMINATE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
CEILINGS AOA 3000FT AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES GREATER THAN 6SM
AS THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO CHURN.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
VFR CONTINUING TO PREVAIL, AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, EX SITKA, KLAWOCK, AND KETCHIKAN, AS ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES, SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS WITH ~20 TO 30% CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING ENTIRELY. WITH EXPECTED CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT, GROWING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INNER CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
TERMINALS, HINTED AT WITH A BCFG AND LOWERED SCT DECK. WILL
REASSESS AT THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE AS FURTHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GROWS AS THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SPEED OF CLOUD
DISSIPATING.
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ~10KTS OR LESS, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KTS POSSIBLE. DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS CONCERNS, HOWEVER WITH LOW
STATIONED IN E GULF AND BROAD ESE- LY WINDS ACROSS BARANOF ISLAND
~30KTS, COULD CREATE SOME LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION NEAR
SITKA, ALBEIT NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN A TAF.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
- COOLER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEAKENING, RAIN CHANCES ALSO LOOK TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. WHILE THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE GULF,
CHANCES LOOK LOWER THAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DECREASE CLOUDS AND WINDS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT
NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SATURDAY, OUR NEXT FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY
IMPACTING WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. MODELS
GENERALLY BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND TO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS SEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MULTIPLE FRONTS/LOWS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG
PLAYER THAT WILL SEND THE FRONTS INTO THE GULF AND THROUGH SEAK
WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DUJUAN AND ASSOCIATED UPPER- LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN INTERIOR INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETWEEN EACH
FRONT, WEAKER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SEAK
ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
PUSHING EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY S-SELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH EACH
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AS DEEPER
MOISTURE FEED AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
RATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GENERATE MODEST INSTABILITY, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING AS
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
GULF, WITH AN ADDITIONAL FRONT/LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE IS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW AND BRINGING GALES INTO THE GULF.
WHILE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINLY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING, LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR A WET AND ACTIVE PERIOD. WHILE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AROUND A
10-15% PROBABILITY OF PRECIP RATES REACHING 6HR/24HR 2-YEAR RETURN
INTERVAL, EACH SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND A PROLONGED
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE RAINY AND CLOUDY
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
MARINE
INSIDE(INNER CHANNELS): A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERALLY
LEADING TO WINDS OF 5-10 KTS IN THE INNER CHANNELS. BASED ON THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED IN E/W ORIENTED CHANNELS, SUCH AS ICY STRAIT. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AND
LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS AS WELL.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WEAKENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE INNER CHANNELS. SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND
FREDRICK SOUND APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY SATURDAY, THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES
FOR THE REGION. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS LEADING TO INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES. DUE TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF, WHERE THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN AS WELL.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD SE ALASKA, BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES
SO. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SECOND
FRONTAL BAND ARE FROM ICY BAY TO CAPE SUCKLING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ662>664-671-672.
UPDATE...EAB
SHORT TERM...MUSALL
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...MUSALL
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