162
FXAK67 PAJK 021435
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
635 AM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SECOND RELEASE FROM SUICIDE BASIN HAS STARTED WITH AN EXPECTED
CREST LEVEL OF 10 FEET EARLY FRIDAY.
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BRING PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM AND WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE ALONG THE NE COAST NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE DOWN TO CROSS
SOUND, WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY CONTINUE TO POP UP
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST,
HOWEVER ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE RATHER THAN PUSH
INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LONGEST FOR LOCATIONS AROUND
CROSS SOUND INTO ICY STRAIT, PARTICULARLY FOR GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU
INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MORE OF A
BREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME ELEVATED WINDS REMAIN THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG LYNN CANAL, WITH 15-25 MPH
WINDS AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE UPCOMING SYSTEM REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK GOING INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BRINGING AN INITIAL WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO IMPACT AREAS JUST NORTH OF POW AND
KETCHIKAN, KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE'S CHANCES OF RAIN A
BIT LOWER WITH THIS FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD.
THE LOW, WHICH WILL SIT JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WILL BRING ANOTHER STRONGER OCCLUDING FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. NOT MANY CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THIS SECOND FRONT, STILL EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN WITH
RATES OF UP TO 0.2-0.3 IN/HR OR HIGHER. RAIN TOTALS STILL LOOKING
TO BE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES FOR THIS SECOND FRONT AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ENTER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING GALE-FORCE
WINDS TO THE OUTER COAST ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. A STRONGER
WAVE ARRIVES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DISSIPATES NEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AK, IT WILL MEANDER AND TRACK
MULTIPLE FRONTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SETUP, REINFORCED BY A
CONSISTENT SLEW OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT,
KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH OVERALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. ONE THING OF NOTE IS AS THE LOW
DISSIPATES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
BECOMES MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED, CAUSING A POTENTIAL INCREASE
IN WINDS WITHIN LYNN CANAL THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY START
ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND AS FAR SOUTH AS BARANOF ISLAND, ALSO
UPWIND OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS MOST AREAS, PARTICULARLY
TARGETING THE MISTY FJORDS REGION. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR 24-
HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING SUNDAY'S STRONGER WAVE RANGES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS REACHING 4 TO 5
INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOW
(25%) CHANCE THAT LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SURROUNDING ICY STRAIT, SUCH
AS JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS, COULD EXCEED 2.5 INCHES. A SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERLY JET WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY, SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIKELY BRINGING 35 TO 40 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM CAPE SPENCER NORTH TO CAPE SUCKLING. OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PRESENTS THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR ELEVATED AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INNER CHANNELS, THEN
TRENDING ON THE DECLINE MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING, ROUGHLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SITES. IN THE SOUTH THERE ARE CONSIDERABLY WORSE
CONDITIONS, WITH LESS THAN 1SM VSBYS AT SEVERAL SITES, AND CIGS
UNDER 500FT AS WELL. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS YET, BUT AS THE SUN BEGINS TO LIFT
CIGS AND FOG, THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
AN APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CAUSE MOST CIGS TO
RISE ABOVE 5KFT BY MID-AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SITES
MIGHT EVEN GET SOME CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS IN THE
SOUTH UNDER A RIDGE AS WELL.
MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS LARGELY VFR/MVFR WITH A FEW
CIGS DROPPED BELOW 3KFT, BUT ON THE WHOLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GOOD
THIS MORNING. SOME OFF AND ON SHOWERS CONTINUE AND WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASED AT SKAGWAY, GUSTING ABOVE
20KT. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES CLOSER, THIS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILARLY WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR SITES
CLOSER TO THE COAST (PASI/PAYA). AS THE ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVES IN,
CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND WILL BEGIN TO DROP BACK UNDER
3KFT TO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WINDS REMAIN LARGELY 15 KT OR LESS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS GOING INTO
CROSS SOUND AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE NE GULF COASTLINE. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AS A LOW MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF CENTERED AROUND 150 W, WITH AN INITIAL WARM FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SW-LY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AND PICK UP TO 20 TO 30 KT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE N GULF COAST REACHING GALE
FORCE WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PREDOMINANTLY E-LY WINDS FOR
THE N GULF WATERS AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
FOLLOW, BRINGING GALE FORCE TO STRONG GALE SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
UP TO STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS EXPECTED NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AND ICY CAPE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. 3-5 FT SEAS FRIDAY MORNING BEGIN TO
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY TO 7-13 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WATERS
FROM FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO CAPE ST. ELIAS COAST BUILDING TO 15-20
FT BY SATURDAY EVENING.
INSIDE: MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FRIDAY IS ELEVATED WINDS ALONG LYNN
CANAL PICKING UP EARLY IN THE MORNING AND LASTING UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON, WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO CROSS SOUND, ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND LYNN CANAL, WITH A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE JUST NEAR THE OCEAN ENTRANCE OF CROSS SOUND.
LARGELY CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS
FRIDAY. WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BEGINNING WITH E-W CHANNELS PICKING UP TO A
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AS FRONTS PASS THROUGH, BRINGING E-LY TO SE-LY WINDS UP
TO A STRONG BREEZE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT
PUSHES FROM S TO N.
HYDROLOGY
INCOMING SHORT DURATION PLUME OF MOISTURE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ICY STRAIT AND SOUTHWARD. IVT VALUES LOOKING
TO EXCEED 500 KG/MS FOR ROUGHLY A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH, INCREASING
SNOW LEVELS TO 6000-8000 FT. THIS IS ALLOWING INCREASED MOISTURE
PRESENCE, WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 80TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE THIS IS NOT
ENTIRELY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WIND TRANSPORT UP TO 50
KNOTS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 500 KG/MS
EXCEEDENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL AND SATURATED
SOILS MEANS THAT ANY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE DIRECTLY INTO
RUNOFF, AND SMALLER STREAMS LIKELY RESPONDING QUITE QUICKLY.
BIGGEST AREAS OF CONCERN ARE IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH
RECENT GUIDANCE HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
SOMEWHAT OUT OF THIS AREA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO SEE SOME RIVER
RISES, PARTICULARLY SMALL STREAMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO SEE ANY RIVER FLOODING AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, A FLOOD
WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED, BUT UPCOMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ326.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-652-672.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...CONTINO
HYDROLOGY...NC
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