263
FXAK67 PAJK 022336
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
336 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM AND WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
A STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AT TIME OF WRITING. A
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH RAIN RATES POSSIBLY
REACHING MODERATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING MOST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, THE PANHANDLE WILL SIT IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH
POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND A DISTINCT DROP
IN RAIN CHANCES. HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH MOST
AREAS ICY STRAIT AND SOUTHWARD RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE
RAINFALL, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
NEAR THE NE GULF COAST, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TO SEE SOME
EXTREMELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY, BUT COULD SPILL EAST OF CAPE ST
ELIAS. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST, AS CAPE
VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 200-300 J/KG, LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS OF A A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
COULD PUSH ENOUGH COLD AIR TO GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DISSIPATES NEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AK, IT WILL MEANDER AND TRACK
MULTIPLE FRONTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS SETUP, REINFORCED BY A
CONSISTENT SLEW OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT,
KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH OVERALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE THING OF NOTE IS AS THE LOW DISSIPATES, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BECOMES MORE NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED, CAUSING A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN WINDS WITHIN
LYNN CANAL THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL DIPS TO MVFR FOR SOME OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. OTHER THAN DROPS FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 3000 TO 5000 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEND
HIGH, THIN CIRRUS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THOUGH THE
MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH PASI AROUND 6Z
AND MOVE INTO THE COAST THROUGH 6-10Z. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH
8-12Z, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED VIS WITH HEAVIER
RAINFALL, MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND THROUGH THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
THAN THEY LOOKED THIS MORNING, WITH THE INTERIOR POTENTIALLY
HOLDING ON TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR LONGER IF THE FRONT BEGINS TO
FALL APART DURING ITS PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MAY AVOID ALL OF THIS FIRST FRONT, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PAKW TO SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A BRIEF BREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE NEXT
MOISTURE-HEAVY FRONT MOVES IN. THIS STRONGER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO REACH PAYA BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AND PUSH INLAND
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO AT LEAST
MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
CURRENT SITREP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COAST IS LIGHT WINDS,
WITH SEAS AN IMPRESSIVELY LOW 4 TO 5 FT ALONG OUR COAST. A SHORT
BREAK. UPSTREAM IN THE WESTERN GULF A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IS
RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE SOURCE FOR
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT EASTERLY NEAR GALE
FORCE ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS BY 2AM TO 4 AM SATURDAY, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG BREEZES ALONG THE CHICHAGOF/BARANOF COAST.
WINDS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BUILD SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF STRONG GALES, GUSTS TO STORM FORCE, ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS
AND GALE FORCE NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. WINDS BUILD TO STRONG
GALES FOR MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWLY COMING DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
TOUCHING ON SEAS, OUR GENTLE SEA STATE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS FRESH
SEAS NEAR 17 FT BY 12 TO 3 PM SATURDAY, POTENTIAL REACHING NEAR 19
FT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE COAST, EXPECTING 15 FT SEAS TO BE THE THEME, WITH AN AREA OF
20 FT SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. MULTIPLE WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE PRESENT; LARGE
AND CONFUSED SEAS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT.
INSIDE:
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST, WITH
WINDS RAMPING UP TO NEAR-GALE FORCE FRIDAY MORNING IN LYNN CANAL.
THINKING THESE WINDS ARE CAUSED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
YUKON BORDER HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 20 TO
30 KNOT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE NORTH, INCLUDING POINT COUVERDEN, NORTHERN STEPHENS, AND LYNN
CANAL.
MOVING PAST THE NORTHERN CHALLENGE, PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS IS A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INSIDE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. PRIMARY THEME WILL BE STRONG BREEZES, WITH NEAR GALE TO
GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER. AT
FIRST, WINDS WILL FLOW UP FROM CLARENCE STRAIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS OUT OF ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND.
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY, BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THEY FLOW UP LYNN CANAL AND
GLACIER BAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE INSIDE.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DURING THE PEAK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN RATES COULD EXCEED 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF AROUND 12-18 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
1.5 - 3.0 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DUE TO
THE SHORT NATURE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL, SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL RISE QUICKLY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-641>644-651-661.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...NC
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