659
FXAK67 PAJK 030543
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
943 PM AKDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM AND WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS
A STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AT TIME OF WRITING. A
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH RAIN RATES POSSIBLY
REACHING MODERATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING MOST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, THE PANHANDLE WILL SIT IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH
POSSIBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND A DISTINCT DROP
IN RAIN CHANCES. HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH MOST
AREAS ICY STRAIT AND SOUTHWARD RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE
RAINFALL, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
NEAR THE NE GULF COAST, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY TO SEE SOME
EXTREMELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY, BUT COULD SPILL EAST OF CAPE ST
ELIAS. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST, AS CAPE
VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 200-300 J/KG, LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS OF A A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
COULD PUSH ENOUGH COLD AIR TO GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AND OVERALL MESSAGE AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
STAY UNSETTLED. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL SEND MULTIPLE FRONTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ALSO WORK
TO REINFORCE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME LATER
WEDNESDAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR EAST OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, WE MAY SEE INTERVALS
OF GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
BEHIND A DISTURBANCE THIS
MORNING BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS OF NOW, THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS FOR SITKA AND YAKUTAT. AS OF NOW, THE MAIN IMPACTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF FREDRICK SOUND.
SOUTH, THERE MAY BE FOG IN KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. BY 15Z SATURDAY , THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IMPACTS THE AREA.
A SECOND WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH YAKUTAT AROUND 15Z SATURDAY.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES AREA WIDE, AND TO INCREASE WINDS AS WELL. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS BETWEEN 35-45 KT 2000 FEET AGL. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR:YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, SITKA,
KLAWOCK, AND PERHAPS PETERSBURG. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IN PETERSBURG WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
AVIATION UPDATE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AFTER 06Z FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
CURRENT SITREP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COAST IS LIGHT WINDS,
WITH SEAS AN IMPRESSIVELY LOW 4 TO 5 FT ALONG OUR COAST. A SHORT
BREAK. UPSTREAM IN THE WESTERN GULF A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IS
RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE SOURCE FOR
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT EASTERLY NEAR GALE
FORCE ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS BY 2AM TO 4 AM SATURDAY, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG BREEZES ALONG THE CHICHAGOF/BARANOF COAST.
WINDS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BUILD SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF STRONG GALES, GUSTS TO STORM FORCE, ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS
AND GALE FORCE NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. WINDS BUILD TO STRONG
GALES FOR MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWLY COMING DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
TOUCHING ON SEAS, OUR GENTLE SEA STATE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS FRESH
SEAS NEAR 17 FT BY 12 TO 3 PM SATURDAY, POTENTIAL REACHING NEAR 19
FT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE COAST, EXPECTING 15 FT SEAS TO BE THE THEME, WITH AN AREA OF
20 FT SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. MULTIPLE WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE PRESENT; LARGE
AND CONFUSED SEAS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT.
INSIDE:
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS CONTINUE TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST, WITH
WINDS RAMPING UP TO NEAR-GALE FORCE FRIDAY MORNING IN LYNN CANAL.
THINKING THESE WINDS ARE CAUSED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
YUKON BORDER HELPING TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. 20 TO
30 KNOT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE NORTH, INCLUDING POINT COUVERDEN, NORTHERN STEPHENS, AND LYNN
CANAL.
MOVING PAST THE NORTHERN CHALLENGE, PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS IS A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INSIDE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. PRIMARY THEME WILL BE STRONG BREEZES, WITH NEAR GALE TO
GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER. AT
FIRST, WINDS WILL FLOW UP FROM CLARENCE STRAIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS OUT OF ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND.
AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THESE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY, BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THEY FLOW UP LYNN CANAL AND
GLACIER BAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE INSIDE.
HYDROLOGY
A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DURING THE PEAK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN RATES COULD EXCEED 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF AROUND 12-18 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
1.5 - 3.0 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DUE TO
THE SHORT NATURE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL, SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL RISE QUICKLY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-641>644-651-661.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...AP
HYDROLOGY...NC
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