445
FXAK67 PAJK 031426
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
626 AM AKDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM AND WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE PANHANDLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE INITIAL WARM
FRONT THAT MOVED IN OVERNIGHT CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING. STILL EXPECTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BEGIN TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM S TO N
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. AREAS FROM ICY STRAIT
NORTHWARD WILL GENERALLY NOT SEE MUCH OF ANY SORT OF BREAK HOWEVER
WITH THE OCCLUDING FRONT PUSHING IN THIS EVENING AND BRINGING
BACK RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AR, IS STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HEAVIER
RAIN RATES OF THE TWO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. CHECK OUT THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, ASIDE FROM THE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL, IS THE GALE FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS TO IMPACT
INLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME, MOST
TOWNS NOT WELL PROTECTED FROM THE SE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO A MORE SW-LY
DIRECTION. THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
THESE ELEVATED WINDS ARE ALONG THE OUTER AND SOUTHERN COASTLINE,
INCLUDING SITKA DOWN TO POW ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THE ANNETTE
ISLAND / KETCHIKAN AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING, AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
EXPECTING THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE
LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE KENAI
PENINSULA, WEAKENING AND CONTINUING TO BRING WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AND OVERALL MESSAGE AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
STAY UNSETTLED. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL SEND MULTIPLE FRONTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ALSO WORK
TO REINFORCE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH PERHAPS A BIT LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME LATER
WEDNESDAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR EAST OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, WE MAY SEE INTERVALS
OF GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE FAVORED AREAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING A FRESH ROUND OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY AND COULD GUST 20-25 KT AT SITES FURTHER
INLAND, AND NEARER THE COAST GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
THE QUICKLY CHANGING ENVIRONMENT AND WIND SETUP, LLWS IS ALSO
LIKELY AND HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN SEVERAL TAFS, MOSTLY ALONG THE
COASTLINE.
AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT, MOST OF THE DAYTIME SATURDAY WILL BE SPENT
IN A LULL WITH RAISED CIGS AND ON/OFF LIGHTER RAIN. AS SUCH, THE
CURRENT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO ALMOST ENTIRELY VFR
DURING THE DAY. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASED RAIN TONIGHT
EXPECT THOSE CIGS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, LEADING TO MOSTLY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: THE DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE IN THE MORNING TO E-LY GALE FORCE TO STRONG
GALES, WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE, ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING IN. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING WINDS UP
ALONG THE REST OF THE WATERS ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE FROM STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES IN THE MORNING TO SE-LY GALE FORCE WINDS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GALES NEAR
THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO S/SW BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, DOWN TO A
FRESH BREEZE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD UP THROUGH THE MORNING TO 8-13 FT, WITH
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS REACHING SEAS NEAR 17 FT BY THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
TO AROUND 15 FT, WITH AN AREA OF 20-22 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NE COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS AND CAPE ST. ELIAS.
MULTIPLE WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE PRESENT; LARGE AND CONFUSED SEAS.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY, BECOMING 7-9FT BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
INSIDE: WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL CONTINUE TO STAY AROUND
15-20 KTS SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH INTO THE
LATER MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE INNER CHANNELS
HOWEVER IS THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING ELEVATED SE-LY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. ICY STRAIT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
AHEAD OF THIS WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND A FRESH BREEZE, AS WELL
AS NEAR YOUNG BAY THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING, WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE E TO SE STARTING
FIRST WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BEFORE MOVING
UP INTO GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGELY
EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP TO A STRONG BREEZE TO NEAR GALE AS THIS
PASSES, BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH AND SWITCHING
TO A MORE S-LY DIRECTION INTO SUNDAY. WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WILL REMAIN STILL A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE, WITH STRONG BREEZES
UP ALONG LYNN CANAL
HYDROLOGY
A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. DURING THE PEAK OF HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN RATES COULD EXCEED 0.15 INCHES PER HOUR.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF AROUND 12-18 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
1.5 - 3.0 INCHES, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DUE TO
THE SHORT NATURE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL, SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS WILL RISE QUICKLY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...CONTINO
HYDROLOGY...NC
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