845
FXAK67 PAJK 041503
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
703 AM AKDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG WINDS AND HIGHEST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED TO PEAK
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN
CAUSE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MULTIPLE FRONTS BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS COMING TO AN END AS A FRONT MAKES ITS FINAL
EXIT TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST LAND WINDS HAVE
ALSO ENDED, WITH ONLY A FEW LOCALES STILL EXHIBITING GUSTS OVER 20
MPH. SOME VERY MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN AN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER TOWARDS YAKUTAT. THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY, BEFORE ANOTHER BERING LOW CROSSES
TOWARD THE GULF AND THEY COMBINE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAMILIAR PATTERN OF BROAD ONSHORE FLOW GOING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THERE IS NO OUTSTANDING FEATURE THAT LOOKS TO CAUSE THAT RAIN TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY, SO IT WILL MOSTLY JUST REMAIN WET IN SE AK THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FINALLY DISINTEGRATES ON THURSDAY, WE SHOULD
SEE AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. A SEPARATE, MORE INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. AFTER THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE GULF.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z MONDAY/
A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS AS
EXPECTED. FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST CIGS AOB 1000 FT HAVE BECOME
INTERMITTENT AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS AS OF THIS DISCUSSION.
THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
PUSH IN LATER. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS AOB
3000 FT AND RAIN REDUCING VIS BELOW 5SM. SOME RAIN WILL BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO REDUCE VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. FOR THE CENTRAL
OUTER COAST, DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SATURATED DRIZZLY
MESS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO
SITKA UNTIL THE WINDS START TO SLACKEN. RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE OUTER COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF STRETCHING FROM MT. FAIRWEATHER WESTWARD TO
CAPE ST ELIAS. WHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE ARE NO FURTHER LLWS CONCERNS ONCE THE
FRONT FINISHES PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
MARINE
INNER WATERS:
THE INNER WATERS WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENTS OVER SUNDAY MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, AND AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, CALMER WINDS WILL
FOLLOW. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY IN MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WHILE 15-25 KTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FURTHER INLAND CHANNELS SOUTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEAS OF 2-4 FT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INSIDE, BUT COULD BE
LOWER IN SOME OF THE NARROWER PASSAGES.
OUTER WATERS:
SIMILARLY, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS
OF 10-20 KTS FOR COASTAL AREAS, AND 15-25 KTS FURTHER OUT IN THE
GULF. THE GREATER CONCERN FOR MARINERS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE
LINGERING SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN COASTAL ZONES AND MOST OF THE GULF, WITH
AN AREA OF SEAS UP TO 12 FT NEAR CAPE SUCKLING THIS MORNING, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033>036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...VFJ
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