431
FXAK67 PAJK 041846
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1046 AM AKDT SUN OCT 4 2026
UPDATE...UPDATE FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAS LEAD TO RISES IN AREAS
STREAMS AND CREEKS. MONTANA CREEK NEAR JUNEAU HAS REACHED MINOR
FLOOD LEVEL AND A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERY WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, CAN CAUSE SMALLER
CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MULTIPLE FRONTS BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS COMING TO AN END AS A FRONT
MAKES ITS FINAL EXIT TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGEST LAND WINDS HAVE ALSO ENDED, WITH ONLY A FEW LOCALES
STILL EXHIBITING GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. SOME VERY MODEST INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF THUNDER TOWARDS
YAKUTAT. THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
TODAY, BEFORE ANOTHER BERING LOW CROSSES TOWARD THE GULF AND THEY
COMBINE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAMILIAR PATTERN OF BROAD ONSHORE FLOW GOING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
THERE IS NO OUTSTANDING FEATURE THAT LOOKS TO CAUSE THAT RAIN TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY, SO IT WILL MOSTLY JUST REMAIN WET IN SE AK THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FINALLY DISINTEGRATES ON THURSDAY, WE SHOULD
SEE AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. A SEPARATE, MORE INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. AFTER THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE GULF.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE THROUGH PANHANDLE AND WILL CLEAR EAST INTO BC BY MIDDAY,
WITH THE STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENDING. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE FRONT, ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH MAINLY MVFR VIS AND CIGS PERSISTING. SOME RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS MULTIPLE FRONTS WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION, REDUCING VIS AND CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. THERE IS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF STRETCHING FROM
MT. FAIRWEATHER WESTWARD TO CAPE ST ELIAS, INCLUDING PAYA. WHILE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THERE ARE NO FURTHER LLWS CONCERNS ONCE THE FRONT FINISHES PUSHING
INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. WIND WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY AT
PAGY BY MIDDAY FROM THE S-SW 15-25G25-35KT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, PEAKING ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
PAJN FROM THE E-SE AROUND 15-25KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE
INNER WATERS:
THE INNER WATERS WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENTS OVER SUNDAY MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, AND AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, CALMER WINDS WILL
FOLLOW. GALES HAVE ENDED, BUT WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY IN MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS, WHILE 15-25 KTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FURTHER INLAND CHANNELS SOUTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND. LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE IN WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN CHANNELS AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. SEAS OF 2-4 FT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE INSIDE, BUT COULD BE
LOWER IN SOME OF THE NARROWER PASSAGES.
OUTER WATERS:
SIMILARLY, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS
OF 10-20 KTS FOR COASTAL AREAS, AND 15-25 KTS FURTHER OUT IN THE
GULF. THE GREATER CONCERN FOR MARINERS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE
LINGERING SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN COASTAL ZONES AND MOST OF THE GULF, WITH
AN AREA OF SEAS UP TO 12 FT NEAR CAPE SUCKLING THIS MORNING, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...VFJ
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