136
FXAK67 PAJK 042254
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
254 PM AKDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERY WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR THIS EVENING, HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE
RAPIDLY.
- UNSTABLE AIR BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MULTIPLE FRONTS BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS AND
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE BAND. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING BEHIND THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS, SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER,
MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH PLACES AT ELEVATION
DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
4,000 TO 5,000FT BUT SOME MIXING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE
WHITE PASS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE 30S. GOING INTO THE START OF THE WEEK, THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE IN.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FINALLY DISINTEGRATES ON THURSDAY, WE SHOULD
SEE AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. A SEPARATE, MORE INTENSE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM IS QUITE LOW. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. AFTER THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE GULF.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST
OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY, WITH THE STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ENDING. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BRING PERSISTENT SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MAINLY MVFR
VIS AND CIGS PERSISTING. SOME RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS
MULTIPLE FRONTS WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSH THROUGH THE REGION,
REDUCING VIS AND CIGS TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE NORTHEAST GULF STRETCHING FROM MT. FAIRWEATHER WESTWARD TO
CAPE ST ELIAS, INCLUDING PAYA. WHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE ARE NO FURTHER LLWS
CONCERNS AS THE STRONG S-SE WINDS ALOFT HAVE DISSIPATED AS THE
FRONT PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. WIND WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY FOR
FROM THE S-SW 15-25G25-35KT THROUGH THE PERIOD, PEAKING ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT PAJN AND PAHN FROM THE E-SE AROUND
15-25KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 15KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE
INNER WATERS: GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DOMINATE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, EXCEPT FOR
LYNN CANAL WHICH IS 25KTS GUSTING 30KTS. DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF, WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL WINDS IN STEPHENS PASSAGE AS ANOTHER NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE
25KTS, BUT GUSTS ABOVE 25KTS ARE PROBABLE. WINDS SHOULD THEN
SETTLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY TO A GENTLE/MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE.
OUTER WATERS: WINDS IN THE GULF ACROSS THE PERIOD ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE STEADY. WINDS ALONG THE INNER COASTAL WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE A MODERATE BREEZE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION AND FRESH
BREEZES IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. A
BARRIER JET IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM FROM ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING
ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A STRONG BREEZE TO THE INNER COAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS SITTING AROUND 8FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AGP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page