618
FXAK67 PAJK 050546
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 PM AKDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERY WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS
MULTIPLE FRONTS BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE WESTERN GULF
THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION WITH SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE BAND. EVEN WITH THE
CLEARING BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS, SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WITH THE
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER, MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S TO 50S
WITH PLACES AT ELEVATION DROPPING DOWN TO THE 30S. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4,000 TO 5,000FT BUT SOME MIXING
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE WHITE PASS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S. GOING
INTO THE START OF THE WEEK, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE IN.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, TRACK,
AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD STILL ULTIMATELY PUSH NORTH AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE, BUT THAT IS NOT YET A CERTAINTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
A FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO THE PANHANDLE NOW, AND WILL DETERIORATE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES, AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS HAS BEEN OCCURRING THIS EVENING. AS THIS FRONT
CONTINUES INTO THE PANHANDLE, IT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MONDAY, AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA, EXPECT THE SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN AND ONSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE. WITH THE SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL ISN'T EXPECTED, BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE CURRENT FRONTAL BAND, A BRIEF
BREAK IS EXPECTED BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE OF RAIN MOVES INTO
THE AREA AFTER 20Z MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS, AND IFR LOOKS LESS PROBABLE GIVEN THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS AS WELL.
MARINE
INNER WATERS: GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DOMINATE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE,
EXCEPT FOR LYNN CANAL WHICH IS 25KTS GUSTING 30KTS. DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF, WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS IN STEPHENS PASSAGE AS ANOTHER
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 25KTS, BUT GUSTS ABOVE 25KTS ARE PROBABLE.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SETTLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY TO A
GENTLE/MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
OUTER WATERS: WINDS IN THE GULF ACROSS THE PERIOD ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE STEADY. WINDS ALONG THE INNER COASTAL WATERS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE A MODERATE BREEZE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION AND FRESH
BREEZES IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. A
BARRIER JET IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM FROM ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING
ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A STRONG BREEZE TO THE INNER COAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS SITTING AROUND 8FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...AGP
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