380
FXAK67 PAJK 051418
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
618 AM AKDT MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS
MULTIPLE FRONTS BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
- INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IN THE GULF LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY
- SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW. COMING INTO TUESDAY SOME
RIDGING WILL GROW NEAR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL START THE
PROCESS OF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL SPREAD NORTH AS THE
LOW IS PARTIALLY ERODED BY THE RIDGING. SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, GROWING IN FREQUENCY. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL ONLY BE CHANCES FOR RAIN, RATHER THAN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, EVEN
THOUGH RAIN WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY OVERCAST, LIMITING DIURNAL SWING. SEASONAL TEMPS OF MID-40S
TO LOW 50S CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, TRACK,
AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD STILL ULTIMATELY PUSH NORTH AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE, BUT THAT IS NOT YET A CERTAINTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z MONDAY/
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, PRIMARILY FOR TAF
SITES ALONG THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH APPROX 15Z. LOWEST
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WITH YAKUTAT DOWN
TO LIFR WITH CIGS AOB 1000 FT AT TIME OF WRITING. THE NORTHERN END
OF LYNN CANAL NEAR HAINES HAS ALSO SEEN SIMILARLY LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ONCE
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL A TRANSITION TO
MORE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIGS AND MORE SPOTTY BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY. HOWEVER ANOTHER WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON BRINGING
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS ONCE MORE ACROSS THE BOARD.
RIDGETOP WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
MARINE
INNER WATERS:
SOME STRONGER WINDS ARE ONGOING IN LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND
CLARENCE STRAIT, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 30 KTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT SPOTS
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENCOURAGES
ATMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY, INCLUDING MORE SHOWERS AND MODERATE RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CALM ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINS TO ERODE AND PUSH BACK THE GULF LOW CAUSING MOST OF THE
CURRENT WINDS.
OUTER WATERS:
A LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS DRIVING MODEST SW-LY WIND OF
10-20 KTS OVER THE OUTER GULF AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK BARRIER JET OF EASTERLY WINDS HAS RESULTED BETWEEN CAPE
SUCKLING AND ICY BAY, SUSTAINING LOCALIZED 25+ KT WINDS.
OTHERWISE SEAS OF 8 FT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COAST AND
9-10FT IN THE GULF ARE PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THAT AREA
WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS
RISE TO 8 FT THERE AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...VFJ
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