104
FXAK67 PAJK 051831 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1031 AM AKDT MON OCT 5 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS
MULTIPLE FRONTS BRING OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
- INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL IN THE GULF LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY
- SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO
CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF MAINTAINS ONSHORE FLOW. COMING INTO TUESDAY SOME
RIDGING WILL GROW NEAR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL START THE
PROCESS OF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WILL SPREAD NORTH AS THE
LOW IS PARTIALLY ERODED BY THE RIDGING. SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, GROWING IN FREQUENCY. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL ONLY BE CHANCES FOR RAIN, RATHER THAN
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, EVEN
THOUGH RAIN WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY OVERCAST, LIMITING DIURNAL SWING. SEASONAL TEMPS OF MID-40S
TO LOW 50S CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, TRACK,
AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD STILL ULTIMATELY PUSH NORTH AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE, BUT THAT IS NOT YET A CERTAINTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY/...ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS ARE THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY. MOST AREAS ARE SEEING VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BAND OF
MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER SHOWERS SPANNING FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO
55N 138W THAT IS MOVING E THAT ALREADY BROUGHT A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN TO YAKUTAT FOR ABOUT AN HOUR (VIS AND CEILING DROPPED TO IFR
DURING THAT TIME). THAT BAND IS HEADING E AND WILL AFFECT THE
SITKA AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY AROUND 2 TO 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS, BUT MAY PRIMARILY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR
MOST AREAS INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS BEING NW OF
SUMNER STRAIT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, SKAGWAY, YAKUTAT
AND HAINES THIS MORNING. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
MAY START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME PILOT
REPORTS OF TURBULENCE THIS MORNING BUT MOSTLY JUST LIGHT TO SLIGHT
AROUND JUNEAU AND KETCHIKAN.
MARINE...
INNER WATERS:
SOME STRONGER WINDS ARE ONGOING IN LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND
CLARENCE STRAIT, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 30 KTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT SPOTS
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS AN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENCOURAGES
ATMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY, INCLUDING MORE SHOWERS AND MODERATE RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CALM ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINS TO ERODE AND PUSH BACK THE GULF LOW CAUSING MOST OF THE
CURRENT WINDS.
OUTER WATERS:
A LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS DRIVING MODEST SW-LY WIND OF
10-20 KTS OVER THE OUTER GULF AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A
WEAK BARRIER JET OF EASTERLY WINDS HAS RESULTED BETWEEN CAPE
SUCKLING AND ICY BAY, SUSTAINING LOCALIZED 25+ KT WINDS.
OTHERWISE SEAS OF 8 FT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COAST AND
9-10FT IN THE GULF ARE PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THAT AREA
WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS
RISE TO 8 FT THERE AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...VFJ
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