338
FXAK67 PAJK 052341
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
341 PM AKDT MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, WITH MULTIPLE
ORGANIZED BANDS BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MIDWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
BREAK WEDNESDAY.
- A VERY MOIST SYSTEM LOOKS TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO
PERSIST FOR THE PANHANDLE TODAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE PROVEN
TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND HAVE BROUGHT SHORT LIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH THE LIGHTNING, A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WERE INCREASED SO THAT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING WOULD BE INCLUDED.
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS. ONE AREA THAT HAS STOOD OUT THIS AFTERNOON IS
SKAGWAY WHICH HAS JUMPED UP AND RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE WE SEE SOME
HINTS OF A BRIEF BREAK GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS BREAK MAY BE SHORT LIVED BEFORE WE SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES COULD COOL DOWN MORE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL
CLOSER TO 0C BY MID WEEK.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, TRACK,
AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD STILL ULTIMATELY PUSH NORTH AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE, BUT THAT IS NOT YET A CERTAINTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 0Z WEDNESDAY/ ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS ARE
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY. MOST AREAS ARE SEEING VFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS WITH THE LOWER CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A BAND OF
MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER SHOWERS SPANNING FROM NEAR GUSTAVUS TO
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND THAT IS MOVING E. IT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT
A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO YAKUTAT AND SITKA WITH VIS DROPPING TO 2
MILES OR LESS AND CEILING DROPPING TO 1000 FT AS IT MOVED
THROUGH. THAT BAND IS HEADING E AND WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS BY AROUND 5 TO 7 PM THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS, BUT MAY
PRIMARILY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS INTO TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWERS BEING NW OF SUMNER STRAIT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER COAST NW OF CAPE DECISION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT IN LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, SKAGWAY,
AND HAINES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
MAY START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME PILOT
REPORTS OF TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOSTLY JUST LIGHT TO SLIGHT
AROUND JUNEAU.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOOKS TO JUMP INTO THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES TO THE OUTER
WATERS. A STRONG EASTERLY JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE INNER
WATERS FROM ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE OUTER
WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCATION TO WITH WINDS TO
SETTLE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 8-10FT RANGE, WHICH
IS WHAT IS KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO SETTLE TO UNDER 6FT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE: BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST IS THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN STEPHENS PASSAGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT GRAVE POINT AND MIDWAY ISLAND HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED BETWEEN
20-25KTS SE, PERIODICALLY JUMPING UP TO 30KTS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 45KTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AFTER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
BREEZES IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FROM
THE SE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM A
GENERAL SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE INTO WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AGP
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