255
FXAK67 PAJK 060546 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
946 PM AKDT MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, WITH MULTIPLE
ORGANIZED BANDS BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MIDWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
BREAK WEDNESDAY.
- A VERY MOIST SYSTEM LOOKS TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER CONTINUE TO
PERSIST FOR THE PANHANDLE TODAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE PROVEN
TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND HAVE BROUGHT SHORT LIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH THE LIGHTNING, A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING, THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WERE INCREASED SO THAT SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING WOULD BE INCLUDED.
WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS. ONE AREA THAT HAS STOOD OUT THIS AFTERNOON IS
SKAGWAY WHICH HAS JUMPED UP AND RESULTED IN A WIND ADVISORY. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE WE SEE SOME
HINTS OF A BRIEF BREAK GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS BREAK MAY BE SHORT LIVED BEFORE WE SEE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES COULD COOL DOWN MORE AS 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL
CLOSER TO 0C BY MID WEEK.
LONG TERM
/ THURSDAY TO MONDAY / ALOFT THE STEERING LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEING EJECTED FROM
THE GULF LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER MODERATE-
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT REACHES NEAR TO ARCTIC SHORES. RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, AS THE LARGE
BERING SEA LOW FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS BUT SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE
AREA, NOTICED A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES, ONE SUNDAY EVENING PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVER THE RIDGE TOP, AND SECOND ONE WHICH MAY
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY - EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND
CLEARING WEATHER OUT. AFTER THE RIDGE SLIDES BY RAIN WILL START TO
PUSH BACK IN INTO THE NE GULF THEN NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF
FAIRLY ORGANIZED FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. A SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMED ON THE FRONT TOWARDS THE
YAKUTAT POCKET AND THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST, WITH
LIKELY ANOTHER TRAILING LOW ON THE FRONT TO RUN ALONG AND SLOWING
IT DOWN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOST LIKELY THE HARDEST.
WILL WATCH HOW MODELS ADJUST OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
IN SHORT LONGER RANGE IS WET, DRY BREAK FRIDAY-SATURDAY AND THEN
WET INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
VALUES, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER
CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR
THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ALASKA IS SENDING A WAVE OF SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR DOWN TO
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH
SHOWERS, AS PILOTS HAVE REPORTED OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED THIS EVENING, AND
APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, EXPECT THE LOW IN THE GULF TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING, AND TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. BASED ON THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW, SHOWERS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES AND WINDS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOOKS TO JUMP INTO THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES TO THE OUTER
WATERS. A STRONG EASTERLY JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE INNER
WATERS FROM ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE OUTER
WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCATION TO WITH WINDS TO
SETTLE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE 8-10FT RANGE, WHICH
IS WHAT IS KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO SETTLE TO UNDER 6FT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE: BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST IS THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN STEPHENS PASSAGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT GRAVE POINT AND MIDWAY ISLAND HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED BETWEEN
20-25KTS SE, PERIODICALLY JUMPING UP TO 30KTS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 45KTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AFTER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVER THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
BREEZES IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FROM
THE SE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM A
GENERAL SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BEFORE DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE INTO WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...AGP
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