469
FXAK67 PAJK 061804 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 AM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY, WITH MULTIPLE
ORGANIZED BANDS BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MIDWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
BREAK WEDNESDAY.
- A VERY MOIST SYSTEM LOOKS TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM...
THERE'S NOTHING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY,
MUCH AS THEY HAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AROUND THE PANHANDLE, AS EVIDENCED BY SOME HEAVY SHOWERS
MIXING IN WITH THE GENERAL RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, A FEW STRIKES OF
LIGHTNING WERE DETECTED IN A COUPLE PLACES OFFSHORE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, SO IT WOULD BE UNSURPRISING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE DERIVED RAIN RATES OF 0.25" WERE CAPTURED
AT SEVERAL TIMES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF
LIGHTER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF SHORT BREAKS IN THE CONSISTENT RAIN.
LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY TO MONDAY / ALOFT THE STEERING LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEING EJECTED FROM
THE GULF LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER MODERATE-
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT REACHES NEAR TO ARCTIC SHORES. RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, AS THE LARGE
BERING SEA LOW FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS BUT SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE
AREA, NOTICED A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES, ONE SUNDAY EVENING PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVER THE RIDGE TOP, AND SECOND ONE WHICH MAY
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY - EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND
CLEARING WEATHER OUT. AFTER THE RIDGE SLIDES BY RAIN WILL START TO
PUSH BACK IN INTO THE NE GULF THEN NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF
FAIRLY ORGANIZED FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. A SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMED ON THE FRONT TOWARDS THE
YAKUTAT POCKET AND THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST, WITH
LIKELY ANOTHER TRAILING LOW ON THE FRONT TO RUN ALONG AND SLOWING
IT DOWN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOST LIKELY THE HARDEST.
WILL WATCH HOW MODELS ADJUST OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
IN SHORT LONGER RANGE IS WET, DRY BREAK FRIDAY-SATURDAY AND THEN
WET INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
VALUES, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER
CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR
THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY/...ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS
REMAINS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY. OVERALL CEILINGS AND VIS
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2500 TO 4000 FT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS BRIEFLY DROPPING CEILINGS TO AS LOW AS
1500 FT AND VIS TO 3 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND OVERALL FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE COMING BACK UP
TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS
ALSO BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST
BETWEEN CROSS SOUND AND YAKUTAT. THAT MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING.
SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY AT TIMES CURRENTLY, BUT ARE REDUCED
IN SPEED FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. A FEW PILOT REPORTS OF TURBULENCE ALONG THE OUTER COAST
EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT MOST OF THAT WAS LIGHT OR SLIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
THEN START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS:
STEPHENS PASSAGE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KT
THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD CALM A BIT GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING TO
NO LONGER REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OVER THE COURSE OF
TUESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND
GUSTS IN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL BE WEAKENING. AS SUCH,
EXPECT FRESH BREEZES TO BECOME THE NORM IN THE LONGER N/S ORIENTED
PASSAGEWAYS. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WINDS WILL SLACKEN
EVEN MORE, BECOMING GENTLE AT TIMES.
OUTER WATERS:
THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
WILL THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. AS IT MOVES A
BIT FURTHER EAST, WINDS WILL ALSO TAKE A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. TODAY SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE 7-10 FT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS, AND OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE GULF WILL BE 10-12 FT. AS
THE DRIVING WIND STRENGTH COMES DOWN, SO WILL THE SEAS, BECOMING 6-8
FT ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WATERS OFF THE
COAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AND YAKUTAT WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN FIRST,
AND THAT TREND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...VFJ
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