666
FXAK67 PAJK 062308
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- A SYSTEM MAY CLIP PART OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY, BUT
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.
- CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST SUNDAY
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE WESTERN GULF STILL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WHILE SOME
BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THE SHOWERS. WITH THESE SHOWERS,
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AT TIMES OTHERWISE THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN PLACES SUCH AS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
WITH THE BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS, SOME PLACES COULD WARM UP BEFORE
THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, SHOWERS
LOOK TO PERSIST BEFORE WE START TO DRY OUT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE GULF AS WELL AS THE YUKON
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WE COULD SEE MORE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ONE
CONCERN WITH THE CLEARING WILL BE HOW COLD DO TEMPERATURES DROP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO GET
DOWN TO AROUND 0-2C ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE OTHER QUESTION WITH
TEMPERATURES IS HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS BE DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL. ANY PLACE THAT STAYS BREEZY WILL STAY WARMER WHILE AREAS THAT
STAY CALM WILL COOL DOWN MORE.
LONG TERM
/ THURSDAY TO MONDAY / ALOFT THE STEERING LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEING EJECTED FROM
THE GULF LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER MODERATE-
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT REACHES NEAR TO ARCTIC SHORES. RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, AS THE LARGE
BERING SEA LOW FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA WEAKENS BUT SHIFT TO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BERING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE
AREA, NOTICED A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES, ONE SUNDAY EVENING PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OVER THE RIDGE TOP, AND SECOND ONE WHICH MAY
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY - EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND
CLEARING WEATHER OUT. AFTER THE RIDGE SLIDES BY RAIN WILL START TO
PUSH BACK IN INTO THE NE GULF THEN NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF
FAIRLY ORGANIZED FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. A SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMED ON THE FRONT TOWARDS THE
YAKUTAT POCKET AND THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST, WITH
LIKELY ANOTHER TRAILING LOW ON THE FRONT TO RUN ALONG AND SLOWING
IT DOWN TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MOST LIKELY THE HARDEST.
WILL WATCH HOW MODELS ADJUST OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
IN SHORT LONGER RANGE IS WET, DRY BREAK FRIDAY-SATURDAY AND THEN
WET INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
VALUES, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER
CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR
THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION
ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWERS REMAINS THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN TODAY. OVERALL CEILINGS AND VIS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND
3000 TO 4000 FT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
BRIEFLY DROPPING CEILINGS TO AS LOW AS 1500 FT AND VIS TO 5 MILES
AT TIMES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASING TREND OVERALL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE COMING BACK UP TO VFR MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST BETWEEN CROSS SOUND
AND YAKUTAT. THAT MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.
SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY AT TIMES CURRENTLY, BUT ARE REDUCED
IN SPEED FROM YESTERDAY. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. SKAGWAY/N LYNN HAS BEEN GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES
TODAY AS WELL. MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT TURBULENCE IN SOME AREAS
THIS EVENING FROM THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BLUSTERY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AS A LOW
WEAKENS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM. ASCAT PASSES HIGHLIGHT WINDS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES OUT OF THE WSW. ALTIMETER WAVE HEIGHTS
INDICATE SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT; HIGHEST SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF, ALLOWING WIND SEAS TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND UNDERLYING WSW SWELL TO FLOURISH. THINKING
WE MAINTAIN WSW 9 TO 12 SECONDS NEAR 10 FT ALONG THE MAJORITY OF
OUR COAST.
OVERALL, WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULF WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW MODERATE BREEZES AND SWELL
DIMINISHING. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEA STATE PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AS A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE GULF. FOR US HUMBLE
FOLKS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, EXPECTING A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP, DRIVING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COAST, INNER CHANNELS, AND INTO DIXON ENTRANCE. MAIN IMPACT FOR
THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE ALONG COASTAL WATERS AS NORTHWEST WINDS
BUILD TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, DRIVING STAIR MASTER FRESH SEAS
OF 10 TO 13 FT, FOCUSED FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE TO DIXON ENTRANCE,
HIGHEST NORTHWEST SEAS IMPACTING WESTERN DIXON.
BY THURSDAY, UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST FRESH SEAS WILL BE WESTERLY
GROUND SWELL FROM TYPHOON CHOI WAN, FOLLOWED SHORTLY BY
ADDITIONAL WESTERLY GROUND SWELL FROM AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITIONING CHOI WAN, LIKELY ABOUT 1 FT NEAR 17 TO 19 SECONDS.
INSIDE:
CERTAINLY, A BREEZY FEW DAYS ACROSS THE INSIDE; HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD BE ON THEIR WAY DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF DIES OUT, LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECTING MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME FOG IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHTER
RAIN. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS, PARTICULARLY IMPACTING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
CHANNELS LIKE LYNN, STEPHENS, CHATHAM, AND CLARENCE. AT THIS TIME
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD NEAR MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH
LYNN CANAL LIKELY PICKING UP A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. FORECAST WAS BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN WHITEHORSE/JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY/JUNEAU, WITH A STABLE BUT
WARMISH BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST RANGE,
LIMITING WIND POTENTIAL. NO FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS AS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE 45F, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
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