039
FXAK67 PAJK 070604
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2026
UPDATE
AFTER 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AND ADDING A NEW LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- A SYSTEM MAY CLIP PART OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY, BUT
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.
- CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST SUNDAY
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN GULF STILL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
WHILE SOME BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THE SHOWERS. WITH
THESE SHOWERS, PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES OTHERWISE THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN PLACES SUCH AS
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. WITH THE BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS, SOME PLACES
COULD WARM UP BEFORE THIS EVENING. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WEEK, SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST BEFORE WE START TO DRY OUT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
GULF AS WELL AS THE YUKON FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD SEE MORE
CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ONE CONCERN WITH THE CLEARING
WILL BE HOW COLD DO TEMPERATURES DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 0-2C ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THE OTHER QUESTION WITH TEMPERATURES IS HOW STRONG
WILL THE WINDS BE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. ANY PLACE THAT STAYS
BREEZY WILL STAY WARMER WHILE AREAS THAT STAY CALM WILL COOL DOWN
MORE.
LONG TERM
/ FRIDAY TO TUESDAY / AT THE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
STEERING LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS
IN THE GULF TRAVELS EAST IN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY MORNING,
AS A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE GULF.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY
SUNDAY. A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER BERING SEA MOVES EAST TO BE
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND STALLING BY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
TROUGH ABOUT THIS LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, THEN TO THE WESTERN GULF MON-TUE TIME
FRAME DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION FOLLOWING.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY - EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND
CLEARING WEATHER OUT. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF
FAIRLY ORGANIZED FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COASTLINE SUNDAY, AND THEN LIKELY
SHOWERS TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE VERY LONG FORECAST
IS SHOWING HINTS THAT WILL BE NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW
THAT SITUATION DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS
TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BRING INTERMITTENT CIG AND VIS
DROPS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING CIGS
FALLING TO 2000-3500 FT WITH THE SHOWERS PUSHING IN. SOME PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COASTLINE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
CIGS DOWN TO 1500 FT, WITH THE AREA AROUND PAHN AND NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL SEEING SOME LOWER 800-1000 FT CIGS ON AND OFF INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VIS
DROPS TO 4-5SM, HOWEVER THE LARGER VIS CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH
FROM S TO N INTO TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALREADY PAPG HAS SEEN FOG DEVELOP WITH VIS DOWN TO
LESS THAN 1 SM, HOWEVER ANY FOG WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD /
PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AND THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE PAPG TO PAWG AREA.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, WITH PAGY STILL
SEEING 20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH
THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT TO AROUND 10-15 KT BY
15Z, AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER,
THESE WINDS MAY HOLD ON FOR LONGER INTO TONIGHT AND KEEP SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, AREAS BEGIN
TO CLEAR FROM S TO N INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY BACK TO PREDOMINANT
VFR CONDITIONS. THE BREAK FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE APPEARS TO
LAST UNTIL AFTER 00-03Z WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS A FEATURE MOVES
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL,
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE S PANHANDLE BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE:
AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BLUSTERY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AS A LOW
WEAKENS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM. ASCAT PASSES HIGHLIGHT WINDS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES OUT OF THE WSW. ALTIMETER WAVE HEIGHTS
INDICATE SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT; HIGHEST SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF.
WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF, ALLOWING WIND SEAS TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND UNDERLYING WSW SWELL TO FLOURISH. THINKING
WE MAINTAIN WSW 9 TO 12 SECONDS NEAR 10 FT ALONG THE MAJORITY OF
OUR COAST.
OVERALL, WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULF WITH WINDS AT OR BELOW MODERATE BREEZES AND SWELL
DIMINISHING. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEA STATE PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AS A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE GULF. FOR US HUMBLE
FOLKS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, EXPECTING A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP, DRIVING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
COAST, INNER CHANNELS, AND INTO DIXON ENTRANCE. MAIN IMPACT FOR
THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE ALONG COASTAL WATERS AS NORTHWEST WINDS
BUILD TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, DRIVING STAIR MASTER FRESH SEAS
OF 10 TO 13 FT, FOCUSED FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE TO DIXON ENTRANCE,
HIGHEST NORTHWEST SEAS IMPACTING WESTERN DIXON.
BY THURSDAY, UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST FRESH SEAS WILL BE WESTERLY
GROUND SWELL FROM TYPHOON CHOI WAN, FOLLOWED SHORTLY BY
ADDITIONAL WESTERLY GROUND SWELL FROM AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITIONING CHOI WAN, LIKELY ABOUT 1 FT NEAR 17 TO 19 SECONDS.
INSIDE:
CERTAINLY, A BREEZY FEW DAYS ACROSS THE INSIDE; HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD BE ON THEIR WAY DOWN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF DIES OUT, LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECTING MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS, SOME FOG IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHTER
RAIN. THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS, PARTICULARLY IMPACTING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED
CHANNELS LIKE LYNN, STEPHENS, CHATHAM, AND CLARENCE. AT THIS TIME
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HOLD NEAR MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH
LYNN CANAL LIKELY PICKING UP A FEW HOURS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. FORECAST WAS BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN WHITEHORSE/JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY/JUNEAU, WITH A STABLE BUT
WARMISH BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST RANGE,
LIMITING WIND POTENTIAL. NO FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS AS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE 45F, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...AP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page