326
FXAK67 PAJK 071835 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- A SYSTEM MAY CLIP PART OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.
- CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF STILL HAS YET TO GIVE
UP AS OF THIS DISCUSSION. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT
STILL BRING POCKETS OF MOISTURE WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POPPING UP FROM
METLAKATLA DOWN SOUTH ALL THE WAY NORTH TO YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DISINTEGRATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH MORE BREAKS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. WHILE WINDS IN GENERAL ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AND
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE DAY,
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THOSE SHOWERS
THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, SOME AREAS
COULD FINALLY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THIS EVENING. A
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER HAIDA GWAII WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE SHOWER
POTENTIAL ONCE MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
CLEARER SKIES COULD ALSO LEAD TO MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN ANY AREAS SHELTERED FROM INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AT THE MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL STEERING LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WAS IN THE GULF TRAVELS EAST IN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY
MORNING, AS A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OVER
THE GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER BERING SEA MOVES EAST TO
BE NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND STALLING BY SUNDAY AS WELL.
A TROUGH ABOUT THIS LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, THEN TO THE WESTERN GULF MON-TUE TIME
FRAME DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION FOLLOWING.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY - EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND
CLEARING WEATHER OUT. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF
FAIRLY ORGANIZED FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COASTLINE SUNDAY, AND THEN LIKELY
SHOWERS TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE VERY LONG FORECAST IS
SHOWING HINTS THAT WILL BE NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW THAT
SITUATION DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS
TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS CONTINUE
THOUGH AT A REDUCED FREQUENCY THEN YESTERDAY. MOST AREAS ARE
SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR (2000 FT
CEILING) AT TIMES. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE WITH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER A MID TO HIGH
CLOUD LAYER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM INCOMING FOR LATER TONIGHT.
OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY IN THE NORTH AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AN AREA (OR POSSIBLY LOWER IF ANY FOG
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY). SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS FROM AROUND 9 PM ONWARD
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 1500 FT WITH VIS DOWN TO 4 OR 5 MILES FROM
AROUND FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS
ARE MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY THAT LOW
INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE:
AS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. BUOY WAVE HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT; HIGHEST SEAS IN THE EASTERN GULF. WEAKENING
WINDS AND DIMINISHING WESTERLY SWELL WILL SEE SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEA STATE PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
AS A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WHILE
A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE GULF. FOR US HUMBLE FOLKS IN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, EXPECTING A TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DEVELOP, DRIVING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COAST,
INNER CHANNELS, AND INTO DIXON ENTRANCE. MAIN IMPACT FOR THE
EASTERN GULF WILL BE ALONG COASTAL WATERS AS NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD
TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, DRIVING STAIR MASTER FRESH SEAS OF 10
TO 13 FT, FOCUSED FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE TO DIXON ENTRANCE, HIGHEST
NORTHWEST SEAS IMPACTING WESTERN DIXON.
BY THURSDAY, UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST FRESH SEAS WILL BE WESTERLY
GROUND SWELL FROM TYPHOON CHOI WAN, FOLLOWED SHORTLY BY
ADDITIONAL WESTERLY GROUND SWELL FROM AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITIONING CHOI WAN, LIKELY ABOUT 1 FT NEAR 17 TO 19 SECONDS.
INSIDE:
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE SUPPORTING LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF DIES OUT, LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN STORE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS, SOME FOG, AND DIMINISHING RAIN. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS,
PARTICULARLY IMPACTING NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED CHANNELS LIKE LYNN,
STEPHENS, CHATHAM, AND CLARENCE. AT THIS TIME NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD NEAR MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES (11 TO 21 KT), WITH
LYNN CANAL LIKELY PICKING UP A FEW HOURS OF NEAR- GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. FORECAST WAS BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN WHITEHORSE/JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY/JUNEAU, WITH A STABLE BUT
WARMISH BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST RANGE,
LIMITING WIND POTENTIAL. NO FREEZING SPRAY CONCERNS AS WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE 45F, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661-662.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP/STJ
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