991
FXAK67 PAJK 072353
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
- A SYSTEM MAY CLIP PART OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY, BUT
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.
- CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS, A QUICK MOVING LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILLS START TO SEE DRIER WEATHER AS
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THAT OFFSHORE FLOW REALLY
BEINGS TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO
INCREASE AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS OVER
WATER AND LAND. LAND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE STRONGEST NEAR SKAGWAY
AND HAINES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
AS OFFSHORE FLOW BUILDS, WE WILL NOT ONLY SEE LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE CLEARER SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S TO 40S. WITH COOLEST
TEMPERATURES BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WITH LOWER CLOUD COVER, AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
TONIGHT, WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS CAN QUICKLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES CREATING DIFFICULT TRAVEL.
LONG TERM
/ FRIDAY TO TUESDAY / AT THE MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
STEERING LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS
IN THE GULF TRAVELS EAST IN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY FRIDAY MORNING,
AS A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE GULF.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE PANHANDLE BY EARLY
SUNDAY. A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER BERING SEA MOVES EAST TO BE
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND STALLING BY SUNDAY AS WELL. A
TROUGH ABOUT THIS LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, THEN TO THE WESTERN GULF MON-TUE TIME
FRAME DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION FOLLOWING.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY, TAPERING OFF/ENDING AS IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY - EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH AND
CLEARING WEATHER OUT. MODELS BEGINNING TO COME TO AGREEMENT OF
FAIRLY ORGANIZED FROM TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY TO
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS FOR THE COASTLINE SUNDAY, AND THEN LIKELY
SHOWERS TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE VERY LONG FORECAST
IS SHOWING HINTS THAT WILL BE NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW
THAT SITUATION DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE AND THE HIGHER CANADIAN HAINES HIGHWAYS
TO POSSIBLE SEE SNOW OR SNOW RAIN MIX FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION
ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THOUGH AT A REDUCED
FREQUENCY THEN YESTERDAY MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS TO MVFR (2000 FT CEILING) AT TIMES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
IS UNDER A MID TO HIGH CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM INCOMING FOR LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
OCCASIONALLY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH AN AREA (OR POSSIBLY LOWER IF
ANY FOG DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY). SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOWER CONDITIONS (MVFR OR EVEN IFR)
FROM AROUND 9 PM ONWARD TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 1500 FT WITH VIS
DOWN TO 4 OR 5 MILES FROM AROUND FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY THAT LOW INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: BENIGN WIND THREAT THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWESTERLY REGIME AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES (UP TO 25
KNOTS) WILL INITIATE DURING THE LATE EVENING, BUILDING SLOWLY FROM
RISING PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECTING TO SEE THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY.
INSIDE WATERS: TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES OF NOTE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ARE TONIGHT FOR FOG AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING, EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY MAINLY COMES FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN NORTHERLY FLOW, WHICH COULD LIFT FOG
INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CANADA AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CAUSE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NORTH SOUTH FACING INNER
CHANNELS LIKE LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS, AS THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR IN CANADA IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THIS FORECASTER WOULD
PREFER. REGARDLESS, AREAS LIKE ELDRED ROCK AND POINT COUVERDEN
LOOK TO BE HOTSPOTS FOR HIGHER NORTHERLY WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...NC
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page