375
FXAK67 PAJK 080626
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2026
UPDATE
THE NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION SECTION AND THE UPDATE
AFTER THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE FOR SEAK.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
- A SYSTEM MAY CLIP PART OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY, BUT
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.
- CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEAKENS. AS THIS LOW WEAKENS, A QUICK MOVING LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILLS START TO SEE DRIER WEATHER AS
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THAT OFFSHORE FLOW REALLY
BEINGS TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO
INCREASE AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS OVER
WATER AND LAND. LAND WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE STRONGEST NEAR SKAGWAY
AND HAINES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
AS OFFSHORE FLOW BUILDS, WE WILL NOT ONLY SEE LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE CLEARER SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S TO 40S. WITH COOLEST
TEMPERATURES BEING OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WITH LOWER CLOUD COVER, AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
TONIGHT, WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS CAN QUICKLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES CREATING DIFFICULT TRAVEL.
LONG TERM
/ SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY / RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE SHIFTS EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
SUNDAY CHASED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND
PUSHING IT ALONG, WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE BERING
SEA TO NEAR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. AFTER TUESDAY OR SO AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS START HAVING LARGER DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE SHORT
WAVES ARE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE
WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH TUESDAY HAS A BETTER
AGREEMENT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SWINGING A LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING OR THE FAR WESTERN GULF
ON THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... A BREAK OF
NICE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NE GULF COAST, AND GUSTY WINDS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. A TRAILING SURFACE LOW POSSIBILITY RUNNING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM N TO S, KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA
AT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME
INTERMITTENT DROPS TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
BEFORE CLEARING THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
AREAS FROM FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARDS MAY BRING VIS DOWN TO 2-4 SM
AT TIMES, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL BEING FOR ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR FROM 10-16Z. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO
THE MORNING, KEEPING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT VFR THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN WILL
PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECTING
CIGS DROPPING TO 700-1500 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
VIS DOWN TO 4-5SM. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCATIONS SEEING
VIS DOWN TO 2-3SM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN 12-18Z, HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND WHICH LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWER
CONDITIONS. OVERALL EXPECTING AN IMPROVING TREND THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH KEEPING MORE HIGH-END MVFR THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: BENIGN WIND THREAT THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO
A NORTHWESTERLY REGIME AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES (UP TO 25
KNOTS) WILL INITIATE DURING THE LATE EVENING, BUILDING SLOWLY FROM
RISING PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECTING TO SEE THESE
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY.
INSIDE WATERS: TWO MAIN TIME FRAMES OF NOTE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ARE TONIGHT FOR FOG AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING, EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL WATERS.
UNCERTAINTY MAINLY COMES FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MAIN NORTHERLY FLOW, WHICH COULD LIFT FOG
INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CANADA AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
CAUSE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NORTH SOUTH FACING INNER
CHANNELS LIKE LYNN CANAL AND CHATHAM STRAIT. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS, AS THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR IN CANADA IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THIS FORECASTER WOULD
PREFER. REGARDLESS, AREAS LIKE ELDRED ROCK AND POINT COUVERDEN
LOOK TO BE HOTSPOTS FOR HIGHER NORTHERLY WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...NC
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