205
FXAK67 PAJK 081318
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
518 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND BRING
SHOWERS.
- CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
- CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
HIGH OVERCAST AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE SE AK PANHANDLE THURSDAY
MORNING. ICY STRAIT IS SKIRTING THE BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECK, AND AS A RESULT RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG ICY
STRAIT AS WELL AS GASTINEAU CHANNEL, WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED FOR HOONAH DUE TO PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE
OR LESS. FOG ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE GULF FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO
CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAYTIME HIGHS. HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S OR NEAR 40 OVER A MAJORITY OF THE REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, THERE WILL ALSO BE FOG
POTENTIAL IN AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE GULF AND INNER
CHANNELS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS
LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS EVENTUALLY
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE, PUSHED ALONG BY THE NEXT
RAINMAKER HEADING OUR WAY. FOR MORE ON THAT AND WHAT TO EXPECT FOR
THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY/
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE SHIFTS EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
SUNDAY CHASED BY A SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND
PUSHING IT ALONG, WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE BERING
SEA TO NEAR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. AFTER TUESDAY OR SO AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS START HAVING LARGER DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE SHORT WAVES
ARE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE WESTERN
GULF. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH TUESDAY HAS A BETTER AGREEMENT
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SWINGING A
LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING OR THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON THE
TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHEAST... A BREAK OF
NICE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY, AS A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NE GULF COAST, AND GUSTY WINDS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. A TRAILING SURFACE LOW POSSIBILITY RUNNING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE PART OF WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND BRINGING MVFR VIS AND CIGS. IN-
BETWEEN SHOWERS, LIGHT WINDS HAVE LEAD TO VIS AND CIGS DROPPING
DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR. RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND CIGS RAISING TO AROUND 3KFT
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS OF CLEARING. ACROSS THE NORTH,
FOG AND LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR VIS AND CIGS HAVE SETTLED INTO
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR INTO PAJN. MVFR VIS AND CIGS ARE PRESENT
AT PAYA. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 8KT. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT AT
PAHN AND PAGY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: A BUILDING NORTHWESTERLY WIND REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD LATER
IN THE DAY THURSDAY LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST, AS WELL AS A DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH
PARALLEL OR OFFSHORE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD, PEAKING LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH NO SWELL TO AMPLIFY THEM, WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT IN THE SE GULF, WITH
HIGHEST SEAS JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. THESE WILL THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD ONCE MORE
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GULF FROM THE WEST.
INSIDE: WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THURSDAY MORNING, OUTSIDE OF SOME DRAINAGE OR VALLEY
WINDS. THIS, COMBINED WITH CLEARER SKIES, HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN
OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DEVELOPING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF, COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD
INCREASING NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WINDS LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE ALONG N/S ORIENTED CHANNELS, PRIMARILY LYNN CANAL AND DOWN
CHATHAM STRAIT. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ321.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-641-661-662.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...STJ
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